Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc

 

Maryland Poll

August 2000

 

 

Presidential Election

Part 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:     Carol Arscott  410-461-5744
Methodology

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998 campaign for County Executive.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

Gonzales and Arscott together have over 30 years of professional experience in politics.  They have served as pollsters and consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s, including County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker, Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from August 23rd through August 28th, 2000.  A total of 649 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed by telephone.  All stated they vote regularly in statewide general elections.  A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, or race.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ó            This survey is provided free of charge.  However, we ask that Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis be credited if the survey is cited in a news story or column.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

 

 

Gender

 

Male         323 (50%)

Female      326 (50%)

 

Party

 

Democrat          371 (57%)

Republican        202 (31%)

Independent       76  (12%)

 

Race

 

 White          490 (76%)

 Black          153 (24%)

     Other             6

 

 

Region

 

Eastern Shore/So. MD          78 (12%)

Baltimore City                       65 (10%)

Baltimore Suburbs              233 (36%)

Washington Suburbs           201 (31%)

Western MD                        72 (11%)

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings

 

 

Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland                 - includes voters in these counties: Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, St. Mary’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

 

Baltimore City                                        - includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

 

 

Baltimore Suburbs                                  - includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

 

 

Washington Suburbs                               - includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, and Prince George’s.

 

 

Western Maryland                                  - includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

 

 

General Summary & Analysis

 

 

Name Recognition

 

In our February survey, Republican John McCain was the presidential candidate with the highest favorable name ID number in Maryland, at 53%.  In this survey, that distinction belongs to Al Gore, who matches McCain’s 53% favorable rating, up from the 48% the Vice President scored six months ago.  Gore’s unfavorable rating remains unchanged at 34%, and 13% view him neutrally.

 

The percentage of voters who view George W. Bush favorably is up slightly, from 42% in February to 44% in August, but Bush’s unfavorables are higher as well, up from 33% to 39% in the last six months, an uncomfortably close ratio.

 

Neither Ralph Nader nor Pat Buchanan is held in high esteem by Maryland voters.  Green Party candidate Nader is viewed favorably by 22%, unfavorably by 38%, and neutrally by 29%.  The remaining 11% did not recognize Nader’s name.  Reform Party nominee Buchanan’s numbers are even worse.  Fifty-eight percent view him unfavorably, compared to just 17% who hold a favorable view.  Twenty percent are neutral on Buchanan, and the remaining 5% did not recognize his name.

 

 

Presidential Match-up

 

Democrat Al Gore has maintained the double-digit lead held over Republican George W. Bush in our February survey, with the gap between the two major parties’ nominees at 15 points.  Gore leads Bush 51% to 36%, with Green Party nominee Ralph Nader at 4%, and Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan bringing up the rear with 2%.  The remaining 7% are undecided.  Gore led Bush 54% to 37% with 9% undecided in a direct two-way match-up in February.

 

Bush has slipped significantly with independents since our last presidential poll, holding just 30% of independent voters to Gore’s 41%, and with Nader picking 15% in this category.  In February, Bush led Gore among independents, 41% to 39%.

 

Bush has also lost ground with female voters, dropping five points with women since February.  Gore leads Bush 59% to 25% with women, a ratio of more than 2-to-1.  The one bright spot in the survey for Bush is among men.  Gore led Bush among men in February, 49% to 44%.  Today, Bush edges Gore with males, 47% to 43%.

 

Not surprisingly, Gore trounces Bush among African-American voters, 83% to 7%.  Bush splits white voters with Gore, holding a narrow 45% to 41% edge.

 

Among the state’s regions, Gore beats Bush handily in Baltimore City (77% to 16%) and in the Washington suburbs (59% to 27%), but Bush cannot match Gore’s lopsided advantage in the areas he carries, Western Maryland (52% to 34%), where Nader picks up 8% of the vote, and on the Eastern Shore and in Southern Maryland (46% to 42%).  Gore leads Bush in the Baltimore suburbs, 45% to 41%.

 

 

Issues

 

Saving Social Security or Medicare remains the Number One issue with Maryland voters, named by 25% of respondents in an open-ended question.  The economy and, specifically, continuing our current level of economic prosperity, held second place with 18% of voters.  Improving public education ranks third at 16%, health care and prescription drugs rank fourth at 15%, and tax cuts are fifth at 8%.  Rounding out the list are character and values at 7%, campaign finance reform at 4%, and defense and foreign policy issues at 2%.  The remaining 5% offered no answer.

 

In our February survey, the top three issues were saving Social Security or Medicare (33%), education (14%), and character (10%).  The importance of tax cuts hasn’t changed at all – it was cited by 8% of voters then and is named by 8% today.  

 

Most significant are the changes regarding two issues, health care and the economy.   Health care and prescription drugs were not even on the voters’ radar screen at the time of our February survey.  Maintaining our current economic condition was cited by 6% of voters surveyed in February, and holds second place at 18% today, a 300% increase.  These responses illustrate better than any else in the survey the extent to which Al Gore has controlled the debate since the Democratic National Convention.

 

However, a question on the issue of the partial privatization of Social Security – loosely describing George W. Bush’s plan, but omitting his name as the originator of the idea – generated a favorable response with many voters.  Forty-nine percent of those surveyed said they would favor a plan that “would allow younger wage earners to direct a small percentage of their Social Security tax payments into some type of private investment accounts, while protecting the current system for retirees and older wage earners.”  Thirty percent said they would oppose such a plan, while 21% were not sure.

 

The plan described found at least plurality support in every demographic subgroup in the survey except for African-Americans, who opposed it 45% to 28%.  The plan was most popular with Republicans (66% to 24%), independents (61% to 26%), whites (56% to 25%), and men (54% to 29%).  Women back the plan, 44% to 31%, but less enthusiastically than others.  Even a slim plurality of Democrats are ready to give Social Security reform a look (37% to 34%).

 

 

 

 

Bill Clinton

 

Is “Clinton fatigue” for real?  You betcha it is.  Fifty percent of Maryland voters surveyed said they would not have voted for Bill Clinton again this year had he been eligible to run for a third term.  Thirty-seven percent would have returned Clinton to office, and 13% said they weren’t sure.

 

Republicans were the most aghast at the idea of an extended Clinton presidency, with 91% just saying no.  Whites (63%) and men (58%) were also reluctant to take advantage of the opportunity to return Clinton to the White House.

 

Clinton might’ve won the Democratic primary, though.  Eighty-five percent of African-Americans said they would jump at the chance for four more Clinton years – even more than are currently voting for Al Gore.  More than half of Democrats (56%) would have given him the nod, as would a plurality of women (48% to 42%).

 

In the end, though, half the independents (50%) and a quarter of the Democrats (28%) said they would pass on a third Clinton term, enough to doom his chances, even in heavily-Democratic Maryland.

 

 

Senate Match-up

 

Incumbent Senator Paul Sarbanes has no worries as he coasts to re-election in November.  Sarbanes leads Republican Paul Rappaport, running his third statewide race, 61% to 27% with 12% undecided.

 

Rappaport leads Sarbanes in just two demographic categories in the survey – among Republicans (60% to 26%) and in Western Maryland (42% to 40%).  Given that Rappaport is having trouble holding his Republican base, even a comeback by George W. Bush is unlikely to lift Rappaport out of the cellar. 

 

 

Conclusion

 

A week before Labor Day, Maryland voters seem to be playing their customary role – providing a reliably Democratic state for the electoral map.  Only with a dramatic reversal of fortune here will George W. be able to duplicate his father’s feat in 1988, winning Maryland in a startling upset.

 

The Senior Bush was the last Republican to have won a statewide election in Maryland, by a slim 40,000.  Others have tried to reassemble that coalition, and all have failed, though Ellen Sauerbrey – now George W. Bush’s Maryland campaign chairman – came tantalizingly close in 1994.   With a Democratic Governor, two Democratic U.S.

 

 

Senators, and Democrats in control of both houses of the General Assembly, Maryland is a national anomaly, but with the Senate seat all but certain to remain in Democratic hands, this set of facts is unlikely to change.  A 2-to-1 ratio of Democrats to Republicans makes any statewide run uphill for a Republican candidate.

 

 

 

 

 

Name Recognition

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

 

 

Favorable

 

 

Unfavorable

 

 

Neutral

 

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

 

Al Gore

 

53%

 

34%

 

13%

 

-

 

George W. Bush

 

44%

 

39%

 

17%

 

-

 

Ralph Nader

 

22%

 

38%

 

29%

 

11%

 

Pat Buchanan

 

17%

 

58%

 

20%

 

5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most Important Issue

 

QUESTION:    In your opinion, what is the most important issue in the upcoming Presidential election? 

 

          Saving Social Security/Medicare                    25%    

          The economy/continuing prosperity                18%    

          Improving public education                             16%    

          Health care/HMOs/prescription drugs           15%

          Tax cuts                                                              8%                

          Character of candidate/values/morals              7%                

          Campaign Finance reform                                 4%

          National defense/foreign policy issues             2%    

          No answer                                                          5%

 

 

 

Presidential Match-up

 

 

 

QUESTION:    If the November general election were held today, for whom would you vote for president:  Al Gore, the Democrat, George W. Bush, the Republican, Patrick Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate, or Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate?

 

 

 

 

Gore

 

Bush

 

Nader

 

Buchanan

 

Undecided

 

Statewide

 

51%

 

36%

 

4%

 

2%

 

7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern MD

 

42%

 

46%

 

5%

 

1%

 

6%

 

Baltimore City

 

77%

 

16%

 

1%

 

0%

 

6%

 

Baltimore Suburbs

 

45%

 

41%

 

5%

 

1%

 

8%

Washington Suburbs

 

59%

 

27%

 

3%

 

4%

 

7%

 

Western MD

 

34%

 

52%

 

8%

 

2%

 

5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

41%

 

45%

 

4%

 

3%

 

7%

 

African-American

 

83%

 

7%

 

2%

 

0%

 

8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

43%

 

47%

 

2%

 

3%

 

5%

 

Women

 

59%

 

25%

 

6%

 

1%

 

9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

78%

 

13%

 

3%

 

1%

 

5%

 

Republican

 

6%

 

81%

 

1%

 

4%

 

8%

 

Independent

 

41%

 

30%

 

15%

 

1%

 

13%

 

QUESTION:    If Bill Clinton were allowed to run for a third term as president, would you vote for him this year?