Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

Maryland Poll

Governor O’Malley Job Approval

Need for Special Session

Slots

Tax Measures

October 2007

Contact: Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4669

www.garesearch.com

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc.

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from October 16^th through October 21^st, 2007. A total of 839 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, race or party affiliation.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 418 (50%)	White 627 (75%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 109 (13%)
Female 421 (50%)	Black 189 (23%)	Baltimore City 76 (9%)
	Other/Ref 23	Baltimore Suburbs 310 (37%)
		Washington Subs 243 (29%)
		Western Maryland 101 (12%)
Party Registration
Democrat 468 (56%)
Republican 275 (33%)
Independent 96 (11%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.		Frederick Co.
Charles Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Dorchester Co.				Washington Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Summary

Most Important Issue

We asked voters, unprompted, what they thought the most important issue facing Maryland today was. Statewide, 18% of voters say that education is the most important issue, 17% say taxes, 12% say health care, and 10% say the budget deficit facing the state. Other issues received only single-digit mention.

The most surprising finding from these results is that given the heated nature of the upcoming special session to deal with Maryland’s $1.7 billion budget deficit, only one voter-in-10 cite it as the most important issue.

Governor Martin O’Malley Job Approval

Statewide, 46% of Maryland voters say they approve of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor, 31% disapprove, and 23% have no opinion.

O’Malley Job Approval	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
October 2007	46%	31%	23%
March 2007	52%	21%	27%

By party, 61% of Democrats in the state approve of the job he’s doing; while 65% of Republicans disapprove; among independents, 49% approve and 25% disapprove.

Since March, O’Malley’s approval rating has dropped six points, while his disapproval has jumped ten points, this due primarily to his disapproval rating among Republicans soaring from 35% in March to 65% today.

When we asked those who disapprove of the job Governor O’Malley is doing why they felt that way, 61% said it was because of his proposal to raise taxes, 17% said it was because of his proposal to legalize slots, 12% said they generally don’t like his style or manner, and 9% specifically said they thought he was “arrogant.”

Direction of State

In January of this year, 61% of Maryland voters thought the State was moving in the right direction, while only 25% thought things were moving in the wrong direction.

Today, voter attitudes are quite different. Statewide, 49% think Maryland is moving in the right direction, while 40% think things are moving in the wrong direction, with 11% offering no opinion.

As with O’Malley’s job approval, Democrats are thumbs up, and Republicans thumbs down; however among independents, a solid plurality approve of the job O’Malley’s doing, but a 52% majority think things in the State are moving in the wrong direction.

Special Session

We asked Marylanders the following: “As you may know, the Maryland General Assembly meets for 90 days each year between January and April. The Governor has called for a Special Session at the end of this month to consider his proposals to deal with the State’s 1 point 7 Billion dollar budget deficit. Which of the following better reflects your opinion?

• A Special Session is the right approach because there is an urgent need to deal with the budget deficit, or

• A Special Session is not needed. The budget deficit should be dealt with during the regular 90 day session that begins in January.

Statewide, 60% think the Special Session is the right approach, while 37% think a special session is not needed. Again, results break rather sharply along partisan lines, while among independents, a substantial 65% think the Special Session is the right approach.

Slots

Support for allowing slot machines into Maryland has risen to its highest point in the five years we’ve been measuring the issue.

Statewide, 59% say they favor allowing slots in Maryland, while 35% are opposed to slots, with 6% offering no response.

Slots	Favor	Oppose	No answer
October 2007	59%	35%	6%
January 2007	53%	41%	6%
January 2006	49%	44%	7%
January 2005	49%	45%	6%
August 2004	55%	38%	7%
March 2004	54%	35%	11%
October 2003	56%	34%	10%
August 2003	57%	31%	12%
March 2003	47%	45%	8%
January 2003	46%	40%	14%
August 2002	46%	37%	17%

Interestingly, the las