Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

 

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

Most Important Issue

Governor O’Malley Job Approval

General Election Match-ups

 

March 2008

 

Contact: Laslo Boyd    443-812-4883

 

 

www.gonzalesresearch.com

Methodology

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He began his career as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research and is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is a partner of Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

Hilary Duff Gonzales is Director of Sales and Marketing for Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Mrs. Gonzales has over 20 years experience promoting the state of Maryland, particularly in the tour and travel industry.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from February 23rd through March 1st, 2008.  A total of 807 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, age or race.

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         402   (50%)

 

White        602   (75%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md  105      (13%)

Female      405   (50%)

Black        185   (23%)

Baltimore City             74        (9%)

 

Other/Ref   20 

Baltimore Suburbs     288      (36%)

 

 

Washington Subs      245      (30%)

 

 

Western Maryland      95      (12%)

Party Registration

 

 

Democrat         451   (56%)

 

 

Republican       256   (32%)

 

 

Independent     100   (12%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

Most Important Issue

 

In the past 2 months there has been a significant shift in what voters perceive as the most important facing Maryland. 

 

Statewide, 23% of voters say that the economy is the most important issue, which is more than double what it was in our last poll at the beginning of the year when 10% cited it.  The next most frequently mentioned issues were taxes (20%), health care (13%), and education (10%).

 

A trend toward voters naming the economy as the most important issue is happening in other states across the country, and this will have important implications in this year’s presidential election.

 

 

Governor O’Malley Job Approval

 

Governor Martin O’Malley’s job rating in the state continues to feel the effects of last fall’s special session.

 

Statewide, 37% of Maryland voters say they approve of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor (down 2 points from January), while 48% disapprove, with 15% offering no opinion.

 

O’Malley Job Approval

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

 

No opinion

 

March 2008

 

37%

 

48%

 

15%

January 2008

39%

49%

12%

October 2007

46%

31%

23%

March 2007

52%

21%

27%

 

Forty-eight percent of Democrats in the state approve of the job he’s doing, while 35% disapprove.  Among Republicans, only 17% approve and 69% disapprove, and with independents, 39% approve of the job O’Malley is doing as governor and 51% disapprove.

 

Dissatisfaction of the job the Governor is doing is particularly pronounced with men, among whom 53% disapprove and only 33% approve.

Cameras in Courtrooms

 

Voters are split on allowing cameras in Maryland courtrooms.

 

Statewide, 46% say they’d favor a law permitting cameras in the courts, while 38% say they oppose cameras in courtrooms, and 16% gave no opinion.

 

A majority of men (52%) favor having cameras in court, while a plurality of women (42%) say they oppose it.

 

 

President Bush Job Approval

 

Statewide, only 27% approve of the job George Bush is doing as president, while 64% disapprove of his performance as president.  The President’s rating has remained consistently bad for a long period of time.   

 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

 

March 2008

 

27%

 

64%

 

9%

January 2008

28%

64%

8%

January 2007

25%

68%

7%

August 2006

36%

59%

5%

April 2006

29%

67%

4%

October 2005

33%

63%

4%

October 2004

44%

53%

3%

August 2004

43%

51%

6%

June 2004

39%

54%

7%

March 2004

45%

47%

8%

February 2004

41%

53%

6%

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%

28%

9%

January 2002

74%

16%

10%

May 2001

48%

34%

18%

February 2001

47%

34%

19%

 

 

Direction of Country

 

A mere 17% of Marylanders think that things in this country are moving in the right direction, while 69% think things are moving in the wrong direction.

 

Maryland Democrats (75%), Republicans (57%), and independents (73%) all think things in the United States are moving in the wrong direction.  Coupled with the economy moving to the fore as the most important issue, this is as clear an indicator that there is that 2008 will be a “change” election. 

 

 

General Election Match-ups

 

In Maryland, Senator Barack Obama today runs stronger against John McCain than does Hillary Clinton.

 

Statewide, Obama leads McCain 51% to 37%, compared to Clinton’s 47%-40% margin over the putative GOP nominee.

 

Obama’s stronger showing rests primarily with his advantage among independents in Maryland, a group he beats McCain 45% to 28%, compared to Clinton, who is trailing McCain among independents, 33% to 35%.

 

 

Superdelegates

 

If the nomination is still undecided going into the convention this summer, Democrats in the state are divided on whether Maryland’s superdelegates should support the candidate who received the most votes in February’s primary, or whether they should use their own judgment on whom to support. 

 

Statewide, 48% of Democrats in Maryland think the superdelegates should support the candidate who received the most votes, while 43% think they should use their own judgment.

 

Men, by a 53%-39% margin, think they should support the candidate with the most votes, while women, 46%-44%, think the state’s party leaders should exercise their own judgment.

 

 

QUESTION:    What do you think is the most important issue facing the state of Maryland today?

 

 

Economy                                              23%

Taxes                                                   20%    

Health care                                           13%    

Education                                             11%    

Crime                                                     8%    

Illegal immigration                                   4%    

Growth and development                        4%    

Environment and pollution                       3%

Transportation/Roads                             3%    

Utility costs                                             3%

Affordable housing                                  3%    

Moral issues                                           2%    

No answer                                             3%

 

QUESTION:    Do you approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

37%

Disapprove

48%

No answer

15%

 

 

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

 

 

Party

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

48%

35%

17%

Republican

17%

69%

14%

Independent

39%

51%

10%

 

 

Gender – Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

 

 

Gender

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Men

33%

53%

14%

Women

41%

43%

16%

 

 

Race – Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

 

 

Race

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

White

33%

53%

14%

African- American

 

49%

 

33%

 

18%

 

QUESTION:    Currently the State of Maryland does not permit cameras in the courtroom.  Would you favor or oppose a law that allowed cameras in Maryland’s courtrooms?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Favor

46%

Oppose

38%

No answer

16%

 

 

Party - Favor or oppose a law that allowed cameras in Maryland’s courtrooms?

 

 

Party

 

Favor

 

Oppose

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

41%

44%

15%

Republican

53%

28%

19%

Independent

51%

37%

12%

 

 

Gender – Favor or oppose a law that allowed cameras in Maryland’s courtrooms?

 

 

Gender

 

Favor

 

Oppose

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Men

52%

34%

14%

Women

40%

42%

18%

 

 

 

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

27%

Disapprove

64%

No Answer

9%

 

 

 

 

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Party

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

8%

88%

4%

Republican

64%

22%

14%

Independent

19%

64%

17%

 

 

 

 

Race – Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Race

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

White

34%

56%

10%

African-American

 

5%

 

90%

 

5%

 

QUESTION:    Overall, do you think things in this country are moving in the right direction or do you think things are moving in the wrong direction?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Right direction

17%

Wrong direction

69%

No Answer

14%

 

 

 

Party – Right direction or Wrong direction?

 

 

Party

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

11%

75%

14%

Republican

28%

57%

15%

Independent

16%

73%

11%

 

 

Gender – Right direction or Wrong direction?

 

 

Gender

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Men

20%

64%

16%

Women

14%

74%

12%

 

 

 

QUESTION:    If the November general election for president were held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were John McCain, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Obama

51%

McCain

37%

Undecided

12%

 

Party – McCain vs. Obama?

 

 

Party

 

Obama

 

McCain

 

Undecided

 

 

 

 

Democrat

76%

13%

11%

Republican

9%

82%

9%

Independent

45%

28%

27%

 

 

QUESTION:    If the November general election for president were held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were John McCain, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Clinton

47%

McCain

40%

Undecided

13%

 

 

Party – McCain vs. Clinton?

 

 

Party

 

Clinton

 

McCain

 

Undecided

 

 

 

 

Democrat

73%

15%

12%

Republican

6%

86%

8%

Independent

33%

35%

32%

 

**********     Democratic Voters in Maryland     **********

 

QUESTION:    As you may know, the Democratic nominee for president might end up being determined at the convention this summer by party leaders, known as superdelegates,.  On what basis do you think Maryland’s superdelegates should make their decision? (ORDER ROTATED)

 

  • They should support the candidate who received the most votes in Maryland’s primary earlier this month, or

 

  • They should use their own independent judgment on whom to support

 

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

 

Received most votes

 

48%

Use own judgment

43%

No answer

9%

 

 

Gender – Received most votes or use own judgment?

 

 

Gender

Most

Votes

Own

Judgment

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Men

53%

39%

8%

Women

44%

46%

10%

 

 

Race – Received most votes or use own judgment?

 

 

Race

Most

Votes

Own

Judgment

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

White

47%

47%

6%

African- American

 

50%

 

36%

 

14%