Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

Maryland Poll

Governor O’Malley Job Approval

Slots Referendum

Death Penalty

Democratic Presidential Contest

Republican Presidential Contest

January 2008

Contact: Laslo Boyd 443-812-4883

www.gonzalesresearch.com

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He began his career as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research and is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc.

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Laslo V. Boyd is a partner of Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

Hilary Duff Gonzales is Director of Sales and Marketing for Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Mrs. Gonzales has over 20 years experience promoting the state of Maryland, particularly in the tour and travel industry.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from January 4^th through January 11^th, 2008. A total of 848 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, age or race.

The MOE for the Democratic sample of presidential contenders is plus or minus 5.3 percentage points. The MOE for the Republican sample of presidential contenders is plus or minus 6.1 percentage points.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 425 (50%)	White 620 (73%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 110 (13%)
Female 423 (50%)	Black 201 (24%)	Baltimore City 84 (10%)
	Other/Ref 27	Baltimore Suburbs 298 (35%)
		Washington Subs 259 (31%)
		Western Maryland 97 (11%)
Party Registration
Democrat 474 (56%)
Republican 267 (31%)
Independent 107 (13%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.		Frederick Co.
Charles Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Dorchester Co.				Washington Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Summary

Most Important Issue

We asked voters, unprompted, what they thought the most important issue was facing Maryland today.

Statewide, 29% of voters say that taxes are the most important issue facing the state, 13% say it’s health care, 13% say education and 10% say the most important issue is the economy and jobs. Other issues received only mid single-digit mention.

Never before in the many years we have been polling Maryland voters have taxes been the number one issue or registered anywhere near this high.

Governor Martin O’Malley Job Approval

Statewide, 39% of Maryland voters say they approve of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor (down 7 points from October, one week before the start of the special session), 49% disapprove (up 18 points), and 12% have no opinion.

O’Malley Job Approval	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
January 2008	39%	49%	12%
October 2007	46%	31%	23%
March 2007	52%	21%	27%

Since October, the Governor’s disapproval rating among Democrats has tripled, jumping 24 points, among Republicans it has increased 13 points, and among independents it has gone up from 26% to 39%.

Direction of State

Statewide, 41% think Maryland is moving in the right direction, 50% think things are moving in the wrong direction, while 9% had no opinion. One year ago, 61% of Marylanders thought things were moving in the right direction, while only 25% thought things were moving in the wrong direction. That’s a 45 point swing in 12 months (plus 36 to minus 9).

Special Session Approval

We asked Marylanders the following: “With regard to the overall actions taken on the state budget by the Maryland General Assembly during the special session in November, would you say you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, or would you say you don’t really know enough to have an opinion?

Statewide, only 27% of voters approve of the actions taken by the General Assembly (a mere 3% “strongly” and 24% “somewhat”), while 48% disapprove (18% “somewhat”

and 30% “strongly”).

By party, 40% of Democrats approve and 33% disapprove; 8% of Republicans approve and 72% disapprove; and among independents, 18% approve and 54% disapprove.

By race, 24% of whites approve and 57% disapprove; and among black voters, 37% approve and 21% disapprove.

In the Baltimore suburbs, the region that gave Bob Ehrlich his victory in 2002, 20% approve of the actions taken, while 54% disapprove.

Slots Referendum

On November’s general election ballot there will be a referendum on whether or not the state should allow slot machines in Maryland.

Ten months out, 54% of voters say they would vote to allow slots, while 38% say they will vote against bringing slot machines into the state, and 8% are undecided.

There is a huge gender gap on the issue – 60% of men favor slots and 31% are against them, while among women, 48% say they’ll vote for slots and 45% say they’ll vote against slots.

Typically on these types of ballot questions support at the beginning is at or is approaching its peak, while opposition tends to grow throughout the campaign; and slots referenda in other states in recent years suggest that this will be hard fought on both sides.

For example, a gaming initiative in 2003 to allow slots at racetracks in Colorado went down 79%-21%, one in Nebraska in 2004 to allow casino gaming went down 65%-35%, and a 2006 ballot question in Ohio, allowing up to 31,500 slot machines was defeated 57%-43%.

In 2004, Florida authorized voters in two counties, Dade and Broward, to approve slot machines at tracks, but it passed barely with 51%.

Death Penalty

In Maryland, support for life in prison without the possibility of parole is growing as an alternative to the death penalty.

Statewide, 42% think the death penalty is the appropriate sentence for someone convicted of first degree murder (the same as felt this way last March), while 48% think the more appropriate sentence for someone convicted of first degree murder is life in prison without the possibility of parole (up 2 points from March).

By party, 32% of Democrats think the death penalty is the appropriate sentence and 58% think life with no parole is the appropriate sentence; 64% of Republicans think the death penalty is the appropriate sentence and 30% think life with no parole is the appropriate sentence; and among independents, 35% think the death penalty is the appropriate sentence and 47% think life with no parole is the appropriate sentence.

This issue also breaks sharply by gender and race.

President Bush Job Approval

With both parties’ nominating contests swinging into high gear, President George Bush’s job approval rating in Maryland remains stagnant.

Statewide, 28% of state voters approve of the job he’s doing as president, marginally better than a year ago, while 64% disapprove of his performance in office.

Bush Job Rating	Approve	Disapprove	No answer
January 2008	28%	64%	8%
January 2007	25%	68%	7%
August 2006	36%	59%	5%
April 2006	29%	67%	4%
October 2005	33%	63%	4%
October 2004	44%	53%	3%
August 2004	43%	51%	6%
June 2004	39%	54%	7%
March 2004	45%	47%	8%