Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

 

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll – Part 2

 

President George Bush Job Approval

War in Iraq

2008 Contenders

 

January 2007

 

Contact: Patrick Gonzales    410-974-4669

 

 

www.garesearch.com

Methodology

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

Together they have formed a firm called Gonzales/Boyd Political Consulting, specializing in offering research and strategy development for political candidates and those looking to shape public policy.  Visit their web site at www.gonzalesboyd.com

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from January 22nd through January 28th, 2007.  A total of 809 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         405   (50%)

 

White        619   (77%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md  107      (13%)

Female      404   (50%)

Black        174   (22%)

Baltimore City             76        (9%)

 

Other/Ref   16 

Baltimore Suburbs     280      (35%)

 

 

Washington Subs      249      (31%)

 

 

Western Maryland      97      (12%)

Party Registration

 

 

Democrat         454   (56%)

 

 

Republican       251   (31%)

 

 

Independent     104   (13%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

President Bush Job Approval

 

President George W. Bush’s job approval rating in Maryland has plunged to its lowest level ever. 

 

Statewide, only 25% of state voters approve of the job he’s doing as president, while 68% disapprove of his performance in office, and 7% offered no opinion. 

 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

January 2007

25%

68%

7%

August 2006

36%

59%

5%

April 2006

29%

67%

4%

October 2005

33%

63%

4%

October 2004

44%

53%

3%

August 2004

43%

51%

6%

June 2004

39%

54%

7%

March 2004

45%

47%

8%

February 2004

41%

53%

6%

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%

28%

9%

January 2002

74%

16%

10%

May 2001

48%

34%

18%

February 2001

47%

34%

19%

 

 

 

A mere one-in-ten registered Democrats approve of the President’s job performance, while barely one-in-five independents (21%) approve.  Among Republicans, 54% approve of the overall job he is doing, but 39% now say they disapprove, an indication that even his base is starting to slip away.

 

By gender, 29% of men approve of the job Bush is doing and 63% disapprove; and with women, 21% approve and 73% disapprove

 

 

War in Iraq

 

One need not look any further than Iraq to discover the reason for the President’s decline. 

 

Only 19% of Maryland voters today say they approve of George Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq, while 75% disapprove.

 

 

War in Iraq

Approve

Disapprove

 

 

 

January 2007

19%

75%

August 2006

32%

63%

April 2006

24%

71%

October 2005

25%

67%

June 2004

36%

58%

December 2003

40%

48%

 

 

A scant 8% of Maryland Democrats and 17% of independents approve of Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq.  With Republicans, 41% say they approve, but a 49% plurality now disapproves, another ominous signal for the President.  George Bush does not have to stand for election in the future, but his “disconnection” with voters on such a critical issue, if it continues, will make it extraordinarily difficult for him to govern the remaining 2 years of his term. 

 

Statewide, 28% say they favor Bush’s plan to increase the level of U.S. troops in Iraq by about 20,000, while 67% oppose it, and 5% gave no response.  Democrats (82%) and independents (67%) overwhelmingly object to this troop increase in Iraq.  Republicans say they are willing to give it a chance, with 58% favoring the President’s plan. 

 

The final question we asked Maryland voters was, “Do you think that all U.S.