Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

Maryland Poll – Part 2

2006 U.S. Senate Democratic Primary

January 2005

Contact: Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4669

www.garesearch.com

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc.

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

Together they have formed a firm called Gonzales/Boyd Political Consulting, specializing in offering research and strategy development for political candidates and those looking to shape public policy. Visit their web site at www.gonzalesboyd.com

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from January 3^rd through January 8^th, 2005. A total of 804 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

This survey also includes a sample of 402 likely 2006 Democratic primary voters. The margin for error on this sample is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 400 (50%)	White 616 (77%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 106 (13%)
Female 404 (50%)	Black 177 (22%)	Baltimore City 76 (9%)
	Other/Ref 11	Baltimore Suburbs 287 (36%)
		Washington Suburbs 241 (30%)
		Western Maryland 94 (12%)
Party Registration
Democrat 449 (56%)
Republican 265 (33%)
Independent 90 (11%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.		Frederick Co.
Charles Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Dorchester Co.				Washington Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Democratic Primary Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 173 (43%)	White 273 (68%)	Metro Baltimore 173 (43%)
Female 229 (57%)	Black 121 (30%)	Metro Washington 168 (42%)
	Other/Ref 8	Rest of State 61 (15%)

Metro Baltimore includes: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, and Harford Counties, and Baltimore City.

Metro Washington includes: Howard, Montgomery, and Prince George’s Counties.

Summary

Five-term incumbent Maryland Senator Paul Sarbanes is very well positioned should he decide to seek a six term in 2006.

Statewide, 56% of likely Democratic Primary voters say they would vote to “re-elect” him if the election were held today, while 34% would want to consider another candidate, and only 10% say they would vote to “replace” Sarbanes.

Support for Sarbanes spans race, gender and region.

In a hypothetical match-up, should Sarbanes not run back, we tested three well-known potential Democratic candidates: Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley, 10-term Congressman Ben Cardin, and former congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume.

Among Democratic Primary voters, O’Malley leads with 26% of the vote, followed closely by Mfume at 24%, with Cardin capturing 20%, and 30% are undecided. Mfume captures 58% of the black vote, Cardin gets 38% out of the Metro Baltimore region, and O’Malley garners 34% of the white vote. The Baltimore mayor has the most evenly balanced regional appeal at this point.

********** 402 Likely 2006 Democratic Primary Voters **********

QUESTION: If the 2006 Democratic Primary election for U.S Senate were held today, would you vote to re-elect Paul Sarbanes, would you want to consider another candidate, or would you vote to replace Paul Sarbanes?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Re-elect	56%
Consider another	34%
Replace	10%

Gender - Re-elect Paul Sarbanes, consider another candidate, or replace?

Gender	Re-elect	Consider Another	Replace
Male	58%	29%	13%
Female	54%	38%	8%

Race - Re-elect Paul Sarbanes, consider another candidate, or replace?

Race	Re-elect	Consider Another	Replace
White	60%	31%	9%
African-American	47%	40%	13%

Region - Re-elect Paul Sarbanes, consider another candidate, or replace?

Region	Re-elect	Consider Another	Replace
Metro Baltimore	53%	31%	16%
Metro Washington	58%	37%	5%
Rest of State	59%	34%	7%

QUESTION: If the 2006 Democratic Primary election for U.S Senate were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Ben Cardin, Kweisi Mfume, and Martin O’Malley?

Statewide Results

Response

Statewide