Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

 

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

President George Bush Job Approval

Gubernatorial Match-ups

U.S. Senate Match-ups

Utility Rate Hikes

Democratic Primary Results

 

April 2006

 

Contact: Patrick Gonzales    410-974-4669

 

 

www.garesearch.com

Methodology

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

Together they have formed a firm called Gonzales/Boyd Political Consulting, specializing in offering research and strategy development for political candidates and those looking to shape public policy.  Visit their web site at www.gonzalesboyd.com

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from April 4th through April 13th, 2006.  A total of 819 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

 

 This survey also includes a sample of 423 likely 2006 Democratic primary voters.  The margin for error on this sample is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         407   (50%)

 

White        618   (75%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md  106      (13%)

Female      412   (50%)

Black        182   (22%)

Baltimore City             81      (10%)

 

Other/Ref   19 

Baltimore Suburbs     292      (36%)

 

 

Washington Subs      239      (29%)

 

 

Western Maryland    101      (12%)

Party Registration

 

 

Democrat         458   (56%)

 

 

Republican       263   (32%)

 

 

Independent       98   (12%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Democratic Primary Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male    177    (42%)

 

White        284   (67%)

 

Metro Baltimore    191     (45%)

Female 246   (58%)

Black        130   (31%)

Metro Washington 159     (38%)

 

Other/Ref     9 

Rest of State             73     (17%)

 

 

Metro Baltimore includes: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford, and Howard Counties, and Baltimore City.

 

Metro Washington includes: Montgomery, and Prince George’s Counties.

 

Rest of State includes: Southern Maryland, Eastern Shore, and Western Maryland.

 

 

 

Summary

 

 

President Bush Job Approval

 

President George W. Bush’s job approval in Maryland has plummeted to its lowest level since he took office over five years ago. 

 

Statewide, 29% of voters say they approve of the job Bush is doing as president, while well over twice as many, 67%, say they disapprove of his performance in office. 

 

 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

April 2006

29%

67%

4%

October 2005

33%

63%

4%

October 2004

44%

53%

3%

August 2004

43%

51%

6%

June 2004

39%

54%

7%

March 2004

45%

47%

8%

February 2004

41%

53%

6%

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%

28%

9%

January 2002

74%

16%

10%

May 2001

48%

34%

18%

February 2001

47%

34%

19%

 

 

 

Ninety-one percent of Democrats, 71% of women and 92% of black voters in Maryland disapprove of the job Bush is doing as president.

 

 

War in Iraq

 

Marylanders’ attitude toward the war in Iraq continues to plunge as well.  Statewide, only 24% approve of the way Bush is handling the war in Iraq, while an overwhelming 71%

 

disapprove of what’s happening there.

 

War in Iraq

Approve

Disapprove

 

 

 

April 2006

24%

71%

October 2005