Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

 

September 2001

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:     Carol Arscott      410-461-5744

 

 

 

 

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in Anne Arundel County politics.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from September 2nd through September 7th, 2001.  A total of 809 registered voters in Maryland who indicated they were likely to vote in next year’s general election were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, party registration or race.

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         403   (50%)

 

White        612   (76%)

 

EastShore/So MD        97    (12%)

Female      406   (50%)

Black        191   (24%)

Baltimore City             84    (10%)

 

Other            6

Baltimore Suburbs     280    (35%)

Party Registration

 

WashingtonSuburbs   256    (32%)

Democrat         464   (57%)

 

Western Maryland       92    (11%)

Republican       255   (32%)

 

 

Independent     90     (11%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings

 

Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland -           includes voters in these counties: Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, St. Mary’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

 

 

Baltimore City                                        -           includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

 

 

Baltimore Suburbs                                  -           includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

 

 

Washington Suburbs                   -           includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, and Prince George’s.

 

 

Western Maryland                                              -               includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

General Summary & Analysis

 

 

 

 

Parris Glendening

 

Maryland voters continue to make a Clintonian distinction between their view of Governor Glendening’s job performance and their opinion of him personally.  Glendening’s job approval, as usual, runs ahead of his personal favorability number.

 

Forty-five percent of Marylanders said they had a favorable opinion of Glendening, 31% held an unfavorable opinion, and 22% were neutral on the governor.  Just 1% did not recognize his name.

 

At the same time, 53% of Maryland voters surveyed said they approved of Glendening’s performance in office, while 33% said they disapproved.  The remaining 14% said they had no opinion.  Glendening does better with African-Americans (79% approve) than with whites (45%), better with women (58%) than with men (48%), and better with Democrats (73%) than with Republicans (20%) or independents (43%).

 

Both Glendening’s job performance and personal approval rating are down slightly from the last time they were measured.  Glendening enjoyed a job performance rating of 58% in our February 2001 survey and a favorability rating of 47% when last polled Maryland voters in May of this year.  Whether the recent publicity surrounding the Governor’s relationship with his deputy chief of staff is the cause of this slip is anybody’s guess.

 

 

 

 

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend

 

For those who wondered what her appearance on the cover of Time Magazine might do for the already well-known Lieutenant Governor, we now have the answer – even more name recognition.  Townsend’s name was recognized by a whopping 95% of voters statewide, which surely makes her the best-known Lieutenant Governor in the history of the world.  This is up from 91% in our August 2000 survey.

 

Townsend is viewed favorably by 53% of Maryland voters (down from 54% a year ago) and unfavorably by 20% (up from 15%).  Twenty-two percent have a neutral opinion of the Lieutenant Governor (unchanged).  The remaining 5% did not recognize her name.

 

 

 

 

Bob Ehrlich

 

The biggest name among Townsend’s possible GOP rivals next fall, 2nd District Congressman Bob Ehrlich is now recognized by 65% of Maryland voters, up from 54% in our August 2000 survey.  His favorable rating stands at 28% (up from 21%), those viewing him unfavorably number at 8% (up from 7%), with 29% holding a neutral opinion of Ehrlich (up from 26%).  The remaining 35% did not recognize his name.  Ehrlich easily eclipses two other possible Republican contenders, Prince George’s County Councilwoman Audrey Scott (recognized by 27%) and trucking magnate John Kane (25%).

 

 

Townsend vs. Ehrlich

 

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend holds a 23-point lead over her lesser-known rival, besting Bob Ehrlich 54% to 31% in a head-to-head contest.  The remaining 15% were undecided.  Both Townsend and Ehrlich added two points to their August 2000 figures (52-29-19), leaving the margin between them unchanged over a year.

 

Townsend leads Ehrlich in every demographic subgroup in the survey except for Republicans, where Ehrlich leads 67% to 20%.  Townsend improved her position with Democrats, increasing her support from 71% in August 2000 to 76% while losing no ground to Ehrlich, who continues to hold just 11% of the Democratic vote.

 

Townsend swamps Ehrlich with African-American voters, 81% to 7% (up from 77% last year), and her standing with men is up seven points from a year ago, from 43% to 50%.  Ehrlich, meanwhile, is doing a bit better with women.  His share of the female vote rose five points to 28%, while Townsend’s is down slightly, from 61% to 58%.

 

Any Republican running statewide here begins the race with a built-in disadvantage:  A Democrat-to-Republican voter registration ratio of 2-to-1.  Despite that, recent media reports indicate that Ehrlich may be leaning toward abandoning his Congressional seat for a run for Governor.  Should he decide to enter the contest, Ehrlich will have a steep climb in heavily-Democratic Maryland.  His campaign will have the task devising a plan to hold more of his Republican base and capture a segment of the Democratic vote currently held by Townsend if he is to emerge victorious next November.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Concealed Carry Law

 

After a recent well-publicized street crime, talk turned in some quarters to the possibility of enacting a concealed carry law in Maryland, a law which would give citizens with clean criminal and mental health records the right to carry firearms in public places.  But opinion to the contrary clearly holds sway in the Free State, with 70% of voters saying they oppose enacting a concealed carry law here.  Just 26% favored such a law, and the remaining 4% gave no answer.  Majorities in every demographic subgroup in the survey opposed a concealed carry law in Maryland, including 60% of Republicans.

 

 

 

Gasoline Below Wholesale

 

Marylanders surveyed take a dim view of the legislature’s recent effort to protect fuel dealers from retailers who offer gas at deeply discounted prices.  Seventy-two percent said that they oppose the new law, while just 16% said they favored it.  Super-majorities in every demographic category – notably 82% of African-Americans – felt that the free market should set gas prices, and that the government should not be involved.

 

 

 

Indian Names for Sports Teams

 

Montgomery County’s Board of Education voted at the end of last month to prohibit the use of Indian name for sports teams and Indian symbols for mascots, forcing a change in one school’s team, bearing the name “Indians,” and another’s, heretofore called the “Warriors.”  When asked whether they thought that the Board had made the right decision or the wrong decision, two-thirds (66%) of Marylanders replied that Montgomery’s Board made the wrong call.

 

African-American voters were the most closely divided, splitting 41%-49% (right/wrong) among the survey’s demographic breakdowns.  Large majorities in every other demographic subgroup thought that the Board had erred in their decision.

 

 

Name Recognition

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Favorable

 

 

Unfavorable

 

 

Neutral

 

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend

 

53%

 

20%

 

22%

 

5%

 

Parris Glendening

 

45%

 

31%

 

23%

 

1%

 

Bob Ehrlich

 

28%

 

8%

 

29%

 

35%

 

Audrey Scott

 

8%

 

1%

 

18%

 

73%

 

John Kane

 

6%

 

3%

 

16%

 

75%

 
QUESTION:          Do you approve or disapprove of the job Parris Glendening is doing as governor?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Opinion

 

Statewide

 

53%

 

33%

 

14%

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

45%

 

40%

 

15%

 

African-American

 

79%

 

9%

 

12%

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

48%

 

42%

 

10%

 

Women

 

58%

 

24%

 

18%

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

73%

 

14%

 

13%

 

Republican

 

20%

 

68%

 

12%

 

Independent

 

43%

 

31%

 

26%

 

 

QUESTION:    If the 2002 general election for governor were held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the Democrat and Bob Ehrlich, the Republican?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Townsend

 

Ehrlich

 

Undecided

 

Statewide

 

54%

 

31%

 

15%

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

45%

 

38%

 

17%

 

African-American

 

81%

 

7%

 

12%

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

50%

 

34%

 

16%

 

Women

 

58%

 

28%

 

14%

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

76%

 

11%

 

13%

 

Republican

 

20%

 

67%

 

13%

 

Independent

 

34%

 

36%

 

30%

 

QUESTION:    As you may know, several states, including Virginia, have “concealed carry laws,” which give citizens with clean criminal and mental health records the right to carry concealed firearms in public places.  Those in favor of concealed carry laws say that law-abiding citizens should have a right to self-defense.  Those opposed to concealed carry laws say that more guns will make the state more dangerous.  Do you favor the enactment of a concealed carry law in Maryland, or do you oppose such a law?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Favor

 

Oppose

 

No answer

 

Statewide

 

26%

 

70%

 

4%

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

28%

 

69%

 

3%