Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc.

Maryland Poll

Bush Approval Rating

U.S. Senate Contest

April 2003

Contact: Carol Arscott 410-461-5744

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999.

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in Anne Arundel County politics. Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from April 19^th through April 23^rd, 2003. A total of 804 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 391 (49%)	White 624 (78%)	Eastern Shore 81 (10%)
Female 413 (51%)	Black 167 (21%)	Baltimore City 81 (10%)
	Other/Ref 13	Baltimore Suburbs 274 (34%)
Party Registration		Washington Suburbs 279 (35%)
Democrat 448 (56%)		Western Maryland 89 (11%)
Republican 264 (33%)
Independent 92 (11%)

Regional Groupings

Eastern Shore - includes voters in these counties: Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

Baltimore City - includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

Baltimore Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

Washington Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s.

Western Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

Analysis

George W. Bush

President George W. Bush continues to do very well indeed in Democratic-dominated Maryland, with a steady-as-she-goes 55% favorable rating (54% in January). Thirty percent of Maryland voters view him unfavorably, and 15% have a neutral opinion of Bush.

Similarly, the President's job approval rating is, so far, rock solid in the Free State. Sixty-two percent approve of the job Bush is doing as president (63% in September 2002), and 31% disapprove, a two-to-one ratio. The remaining 7% offered no answer. Bush's numbers are certainly buoyed by huge figures among Republicans (91% approval), but he also does well with independents (57%), and splits the Democrats down the middle (46% to 45%).

Hence, Bush's re-elect numbers are not that bad for a candidate who lost Maryland by 17 points in November 2000. Thirty-nine percent said they would vote to re-elect Bush, 26% would replace him, and 35% would consider another candidate.

Most Important Issue

With the war in Iraq drawing to a conclusion, the economy and jobs (28%) have taken over as the most important issues facing the president and congress today. The war in, and the rebuilding of, Iraq hold second place with 21%, and the overarching issue of terrorism is third with 16%.

Other issues generate single digit levels of concern: Education at 9%, the budget deficit at 8%, health care and prescription drugs at7%, taxes at 6%, and the environment and crime/drugs at 1% each. The remaining 3% offered no answer.

Iraq

Sixty-one percent of Maryland voters surveyed favored the recently-conducted military action in Iraq, while 27% were opposed, figures which closely mirror the President's job performance numbers. Twelve percent gave no answer.

Voters were then asked whether they would favor or oppose military action in Syria if

there is evidence that Assad's government there possessed weapons of mass destruction. Forty-eight percent said they would favor military action, and 41% were opposed. The remaining 11% offered no answer.

Responding to an open-ended question, 41% of survey respondents said that the primary responsibility for the looting for the Museum of Antiquities in Baghdad belonged with the looters themselves. Ten percent assigned primary responsibility to poor or oppressed Iraqis, 9% to Saddam Hussein loyalists, and 4% to museum officials. Just 3% assigned primary responsibility to the American military. Eight percent named others. The remaining 25% said they didn't know.

U.S. Senate Race

Incumbent Senator Barbara Mikulski's name is recognized favorably by 57% of Maryland voters surveyed, unfavorably by 24%, and neutrally by 17%. The remaining 2% didn't recognize Milukski's name.

Sixty-three percent said they approve of the job Mikulski is doing as U.S. Senator, while 22% disapprove. The remaining 15% offered no answer.

To test Mikulski's strength against one of the bigger potential weapons in the Republican arsenal, we matched her against Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele. Mikulski leads Steele 54% to 37% with 9% undecided.

To give the GOP any chance in a contest against a candidate as formidable as the diminutive Mikulski, it seems to us, the party is going to have to put forth a nominee with some credibility and stature, such as the recently elected Lieutenant Governor.

Name Recognition

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Recognize
George Bush	55%	30%	15%	-

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Statewide	62%	31%	7%
Men	65%	32%	3%
Women	59%	30%	11%
Democrat	46%	45%	9%
Republican	91%	6%	3%
Independent	57%	32%	11%

QUESTION: If the November 2004 election for president were held today, would you vote to re-elect Republican George Bush, would you want to consider another candidate, or would you vote to replace Bush with a Democrat?

Re-elect 39%

Consider another candidate 35%

Replace 26%

QUESTION: What do you believe is the most important issue facing the President and Congress today?

The Economy/jobs 28%

The war in Iraq/rebuilding Iraq 21%

Terrorism 16%

Education 9%

Budget deficit 8%

Health care/prescription drugs 7%

Taxes 6%

Environment 1%

Crime/drugs 1%

No answer 3%

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose the recently conducted military action in Iraq?

Favor 61%

Oppose 27%

No answer 12%

QUESTION: Would you favor or oppose military action in Syria if there is evidence that the Syrian government has weapons of mass destruction?

Favor 48%

Oppose 41%

No answer 11%

QUESTION: Who do you believe is primarily responsible for the looting of the Museum of Antiquities in Baghdad?

The looters/criminals 41%

Poor/oppressed citizens 10%

Saddam Hussein's government/loyalists 9%

Museum officials 4%

The American military 3%

Others 8%

Don't know 25%

Name Recognition

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Recognize
Barbara Mikulski	57%	24%	17%	2%
Michael Steele	42%	10%	31%	17%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barbara Mikulski is doing as U.S. Senator?

Approve 63%

Disapprove 22%

No answer 15%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Michael Steele is doing as Lieutenant Governor?

Approve 41%

Disapprove 12%

No answer 47%

QUESTION: If the November 2004 election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Barbara Mikulski, the Democrat and Michael Steele, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Mikulski 54%

Steele 37%

Undecided 9%