Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc

 

January 2000

 

Conducted for

 

Marylanders for Efficient and Safe Highways

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:     Carol Arscott  410-461-5744

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998 campaign for County Executive.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

Gonzales and Arscott together have over 30 years of professional experience in politics.  They have served as pollsters and consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s, including County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker, Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from January 7th through January 11th, 2000.  A total of 826 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed by telephone.  All stated they regularly vote in statewide general elections.  A cross-section of calls were made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, race, or region.

 

These five survey questions were paid for by Marylanders for Efficient and Safe Highways, and released publicly by MESH on January 18, 2000.  This report has been posted on the Gonzales RM&S web site with their permission.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

 

 

Gender

 

Male         409 (50%)

Female      417 (50%)

 

Party

 

Democrat          470 (57%)

Republican        272 (33%)

Independent       84  (10%)

 

Race

 

 White          628 (76%)

 Black          187 (23%)

     Other          11

 

 

Region

 

Eastern Shore/So. MD          99 (12%)

Baltimore City                       86 (10%)

Baltimore Suburbs              279 (34%)

Washington Suburbs           269 (33%)

Western MD                          93 (11%)

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings

 

 

Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland             -           includes voters in these counties: Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, St. Mary’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

 

 

Baltimore City                                        -           includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

 

 

Baltimore Suburbs                                  -           includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

 

 

Washington Suburbs                               -           includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, and Prince George’s.

 

 

Western Maryland                                  -           includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

 

 


General Summary & Analysis

 

 

 

 

Maryland voters are stuck in worsening traffic, they’re not very happy about it, and they want the State to act now.  That is the unmistakable message conveyed by our polling for Marylanders for Safe and Efficient Highways.

 

Nearly three-quarters of survey respondents, 73%, say that traffic conditions in their area have worsened in the past five years, while 20% thought conditions had stayed the same, and just 4% felt they had improved, with the remaining 3% offering no answer. 

 

Worsening traffic conditions were reported in super-majority numbers in every region except Baltimore City, where 46% thought conditions had worsened, 41% felt they remained the same, and just 7% thought they had improved, hardly a ringing endorsement.  In the Washington suburbs, a whopping 83% of those surveyed said that traffic conditions in their area had declined in the past five years.

 

The local traffic situation is described as at least somewhat of a problem in their daily lives by 65% of voters surveyed statewide – and as a major problem by 18%.  Twenty-three percent said that their local traffic situation was not much of a problem, 10% thought it was no problem at all, and 2% offered no answer. 

 

African-Americans (23%) were more likely than whites (16%) to view their local traffic situation as a major problem, while Washington area voters (25%) were more likely than their counterparts across the state to see the problem as a major one in their daily lives.

 

More than three-quarters (76%) of Maryland voters statewide said they believed that new roads or road improvements are needed to relieve traffic congestion in their area, including 69% of respondents from Baltimore City.  Just 21% said that new and improved roads were not needed, with the remaining 3% offering no answer. 

 

Again, the Washington suburbs lead the pack, with 83% believing that relief from their traffic woes required new roads.  While there is remarkable unanimity on this issue across every demographic subgroup in the survey, it is interesting to note that Democrats (78%) are even slightly more likely to favor new roads than Republicans (70%).

 

Three-quarters of the survey sample (74%) said that the congestion problems in their area were significant enough that the General Assembly should act now to fund road improvements, rather than waiting three or four years.  Twenty-two percent felt that the General Assembly could wait, while the remaining 4% gave no response. 

 

Only among Baltimore City (64%) and Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland voters (69%) did the majority for acting now drop below 70%.

 

So strong is the sentiment in favor of more and improved roads that less than fifty percent of respondents felt that more of the State’s billion dollar surplus should be spent on education and public safety than on highways.  When asked how they would prefer the surplus be spent, 33% thought that an equal percentage of the funds should be expended on roads, education, and public safety; 4% thought that more should be spent on roads; and 49% opted for a higher percentage of the surplus to be spent on education and public safety than roads.  The remaining 14% offered no answer.  

 

That 43% of voters in the Washington suburbs, 41% of those in Western Maryland, 38% of those in the Baltimore suburbs, and even 25% of those in Baltimore City would prefer to see at least as high a percentage, if not more, surplus funds devoted to roads than to bread-and-butter issues like education and public safety is testament to the fact that Maryland’s current highway situation is unacceptable to voters across the state.


QUESTION:    Over the past five years, has traffic congestion in your area improved, worsened, or stayed the same?

 

 

 

 

 

Improved

 

Worsened

Stayed the Same

 

No Answer

 

Statewide

 

4%

 

73%

 

20%

 

3%

 

 

 

 

 

Eastern Shore/So. MD

 

6%

 

74%

 

17%

 

3%

 

Baltimore City

 

7%

 

46%

 

41%

 

6%

Baltimore Suburbs

 

3%

 

71%

 

24%

 

2%

Washington Suburbs

 

2%

 

83%

 

11%

 

4%

 

Western MD

 

5%

 

77%

 

15%

 

3%

 

 

 

 

 

Male

2%

75%

22%

1%

Female

6%

71%

18%

5%

 

 

 

 

 

White

3%

77%

18%

2%

Black

7%

59%

28%

6%

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

4%

66%

26%

4%

Republican

4%

81%

13%

2%

Independent

3%

83%

12%

2%

 

 

 

 


QUESTION:     How would you describe your local traffic situation as it affects your daily life?  Would you say it is a major problem, somewhat of a problem, not much of a problem, or no problem at all?

 

 

 

 

Major Problem

Somewhat Problem

Not Much Problem

No Problem at All

 

No Answer

 

Statewide

 

18%

 

47%

 

23%

 

10%

 

2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eastern Shore/So. MD

 

10%

 

45%

 

29%

 

15%

 

1%

 

Baltimore City

 

7%

 

33%

 

44%

 

13%

 

3%

Baltimore Suburbs

 

18%

 

49%

 

21%

 

10%

 

2%

Washington Suburbs

 

25%

 

51%

 

17%

 

5%

 

2%

 

Western MD

 

18%

 

46%

 

20%

 

15%

 

1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Male

18%

49%

25%

7%

1%

Female

18%

45%

21%

13%

3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

White

16%

47%

23%

12%

2%

Black

23%

47%

22%

5%

3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

17%

45%

26%

10%

2%

Republican

18%

53%

16%

11%

2%

Independent

25%

39%

27%

6%

3%

 

 

 

 


QUESTION:    Do you believe that new roads or road improvements are needed to relieve traffic congestion in your area, or not?

 

 

 

Yes,

Needed

Not

Needed

 

No Answer