Research &
Communications, Inc
January 2000
Marylanders
for Efficient and Safe Highways
Contact: Carol Arscott
410-461-5744
Methodology
Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol
A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign
Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999.
Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of
the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County
Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998
campaign for County Executive. Arscott
is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a
former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party.
Gonzales and Arscott
together have over 30 years of professional experience in politics. They have served as pollsters and
consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s,
including County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker,
Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty
Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.
This survey was conducted by
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from January 7th through
January 11th, 2000. A total
of 826 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed by telephone. All stated they regularly vote in statewide
general elections. A cross-section of
calls were made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general
election voting patterns.
The margin for error,
according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5
percentage points. This means that
there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within
this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any
demographic subgroup, such as gender, race, or region.
These five survey questions were paid for by Marylanders
for Efficient and Safe Highways, and released publicly by MESH on January 18,
2000. This report has been posted on
the Gonzales RM&S web site with their permission.
Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics
|
Gender Male 409 (50%) Female 417 (50%) |
|
Party Democrat 470 (57%) Republican 272 (33%) Independent 84 (10%) |
|
Race White 628 (76%) Black 187 (23%) Other 11 |
|
Region Eastern Shore/So. MD 99 (12%) Baltimore City 86 (10%) Baltimore Suburbs 279 (34%) Washington Suburbs 269 (33%) Western MD 93 (11%) |
Regional
Groupings
Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, St. Mary’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.
Baltimore City - includes voters in the City of Baltimore.
Baltimore Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.
Washington Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, and Prince George’s.
Western Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.
General Summary & Analysis
Maryland voters are stuck in worsening traffic, they’re not very happy about it, and they want the State to act now. That is the unmistakable message conveyed by our polling for Marylanders for Safe and Efficient Highways.
Nearly
three-quarters of survey respondents, 73%, say that traffic conditions in their
area have worsened in the past five years, while 20% thought conditions had
stayed the same, and just 4% felt they had improved, with the remaining 3%
offering no answer.
Worsening
traffic conditions were reported in super-majority numbers in every region
except Baltimore City, where 46% thought conditions had worsened, 41% felt they
remained the same, and just 7% thought they had improved, hardly a ringing
endorsement. In the Washington suburbs,
a whopping 83% of those surveyed said that traffic conditions in their area had
declined in the past five years.
The
local traffic situation is described as at least somewhat of a problem in their
daily lives by 65% of voters surveyed statewide – and as a major problem by
18%. Twenty-three percent said that
their local traffic situation was not much of a problem, 10% thought it was no
problem at all, and 2% offered no answer.
African-Americans
(23%) were more likely than whites (16%) to view their local traffic situation
as a major problem, while Washington area voters (25%) were more likely than
their counterparts across the state to see the problem as a major one in their
daily lives.
More
than three-quarters (76%) of Maryland voters statewide said they believed that
new roads or road improvements are needed to relieve traffic congestion in
their area, including 69% of respondents from Baltimore City. Just 21% said that new and improved roads
were not needed, with the remaining 3% offering no answer.
Again,
the Washington suburbs lead the pack, with 83% believing that relief from their
traffic woes required new roads. While
there is remarkable unanimity on this issue across every demographic subgroup
in the survey, it is interesting to note that Democrats (78%) are even slightly
more likely to favor new roads than Republicans (70%).
Three-quarters
of the survey sample (74%) said that the congestion problems in their area were
significant enough that the General Assembly should act now to fund road
improvements, rather than waiting three or four years. Twenty-two percent felt that the General
Assembly could wait, while the remaining 4% gave no response.
Only
among Baltimore City (64%) and Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland voters (69%) did
the majority for acting now drop below 70%.
So
strong is the sentiment in favor of more and improved roads that less than
fifty percent of respondents felt that more of the State’s billion dollar
surplus should be spent on education and public safety than on highways. When asked how they would prefer the surplus
be spent, 33% thought that an equal percentage of the funds should be expended
on roads, education, and public safety; 4% thought that more should be spent on
roads; and 49% opted for a higher percentage of the surplus to be spent on
education and public safety than roads.
The remaining 14% offered no answer.
That 43% of voters in the Washington suburbs, 41% of those in Western Maryland, 38% of those in the Baltimore suburbs, and even 25% of those in Baltimore City would prefer to see at least as high a percentage, if not more, surplus funds devoted to roads than to bread-and-butter issues like education and public safety is testament to the fact that Maryland’s current highway situation is unacceptable to voters across the state.
QUESTION: Over the past five years, has traffic
congestion in your area improved, worsened, or stayed the same?
|
|
Improved |
Worsened |
Stayed the Same |
No Answer |
|
Statewide |
4% |
73% |
20% |
3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Eastern
Shore/So. MD |
6% |
74% |
17% |
3% |
|
Baltimore
City |
7% |
46% |
41% |
6% |
|
Baltimore
Suburbs |
3% |
71% |
24% |
2% |
|
Washington
Suburbs |
2% |
83% |
11% |
4% |
|
Western
MD |
5% |
77% |
15% |
3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Male |
2% |
75% |
22% |
1% |
|
Female |
6% |
71% |
18% |
5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
3% |
77% |
18% |
2% |
|
Black |
7% |
59% |
28% |
6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
4% |
66% |
26% |
4% |
|
Republican |
4% |
81% |
13% |
2% |
|
Independent |
3% |
83% |
12% |
2% |
QUESTION: How would you describe your
local traffic situation as it affects your daily life? Would you say it is a major problem, somewhat
of a problem, not much of a problem, or no problem at all?
|
|
Major Problem |
Somewhat Problem |
Not Much Problem |
No Problem at All |
No Answer |
|
Statewide |
18% |
47% |
23% |
10% |
2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Eastern
Shore/So. MD |
10% |
45% |
29% |
15% |
1% |
|
Baltimore
City |
7% |
33% |
44% |
13% |
3% |
|
Baltimore
Suburbs |
18% |
49% |
21% |
10% |
2% |
|
Washington
Suburbs |
25% |
51% |
17% |
5% |
2% |
|
Western
MD |
18% |
46% |
20% |
15% |
1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Male |
18% |
49% |
25% |
7% |
1% |
|
Female |
18% |
45% |
21% |
13% |
3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
16% |
47% |
23% |
12% |
2% |
|
Black |
23% |
47% |
22% |
5% |
3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
17% |
45% |
26% |
10% |
2% |
|
Republican |
18% |
53% |
16% |
11% |
2% |
|
Independent |
25% |
39% |
27% |
6% |
3% |
QUESTION: Do you believe that new roads or road improvements are needed to relieve traffic congestion in your area, or not?
|
|
Yes, Needed |
Not Needed |
No Answer |