Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

 

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

Presidential Election

United States Senate Election

 

 

October 2004

 

 

Contact: Patrick Gonzales    410-974-4669

 

 

 

 

www.garesearch.com

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from October 1st through October 5th, 2004.  A total of 809 registered voters in Maryland who indicated that they were going to vote on November 2nd were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         397   (49%)

 

White        613   (76%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md   105    (13%)

Female      412   (51%)

Black        183   (23%)

Baltimore City             82    (10%)

 

Other/Ref   13 

Baltimore Suburbs     274    (34%)

 

 

Washington Suburbs  257    (32%)

 

 

Western Maryland       91    (11%)

Party Registration

Military Service

 

 

Democrat         450   (56%)

Served in

Military     171       (21%)

 

 

Republican       259   (32%)

Served during

Vietnam      62       (8%)

 

 

Independent     100   (12%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

 

George W. Bush Job Approval

 

Statewide in Maryland, 44% approve of the job President George Bush is doing, while 53% disapprove (up 2 points since August), and 3% offer no opinion on his job performance. 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

October 2004

44%

53%

3%

August 2004

43%

51%

6%

June 2004

39%

54%

7%

March 2004

45%

47%

8%

February 2004

41%

53%

6%

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%

28%

9%

January 2002

74%

16%

10%

May 2001

48%

34%

18%

February 2001

47%

34%

19%

 

 

Eighty-two percent of Republicans approve of what Bush is doing, 75% of Democrats disapprove; independents are more split with a majority tilting toward disapproval (54%).

 

 

Presidential Match-up

 

In an election match-up, the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards continues with a double-digit lead in Maryland.  Statewide, 52% of voters say that if the election were held today, they would vote for Kerry/Edwards, while 42% support the GOP ticket of Bush and Dick Cheney, a mere 1% say they’ll vote for Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, and 5% are undecided.

 

As has been the case throughout this election in Maryland, the two major party nominees’ electoral positions derive from their respective party bases.  Kerry, at this point, leads Bush among independents 46% to 38%.

 

Bush leads Kerry in three of the five regions of the state, but Kerry’s margins in Baltimore City and the Washington suburbs give him his 10 point lead.

 

 

 

 

Among Marylanders who’ve served in the military at one time or another, Bush leads Kerry 49% to 41%.  Among those who served during the Vietnam era, Bush enjoys a much more commanding lead, 65%-34%.

 

Bush’s supporters are much more apt to be voting for him because they like him, as opposed to voting for him because they dislike John Kerry.  Statewide, 72% of Bush voters say they support him because they like him “very much,” 22% because they like him “somewhat,” while only 5% are voting for him because they dislike Kerry.

 

Kerry voters, on the other hand, are significantly more driven by an aversion to the opponent – 29% say they’re voting for Kerry because they dislike Bush, while only 34% say they’re voting for the Massachusetts senator because they like Kerry “very much” and 33% because they like him “somewhat.”

 

In an attempt to gauge how Marylanders feel about the recent contretemps surrounding Bush and Kerry’s behavior 35 years ago, we asked the following, “There has been much discussion about George W. Bush’s and John Kerry’s activities during the Vietnam War period.  Does the behavior of either candidate during that period matter to you, or not?”

 

Statewide, 26% of Free State voters say that this matters, while over two-thirds (68%) say what Bush and Kerry did in the late sixties and early seventies does not matter.

 

Bush voters are more apt than Kerry voters to say that it matters, and those Marylanders who served in the military during the Vietnam War era are most likely of all to say that it matters to them (45%).

 

 

U.S. Senate Election

 

Three-term incumbent Barbara Mikulski remains popular with Maryland voters.  Statewide, 59% approve of the job she’s doing in Washington, while 25% disapprove, and 16% offer no opinion.

 

A majority of 51% of Republicans disapprove of Mikulski’s performance in office, but over one-third (36%) approve of her – these numbers illuminating the difficulty the GOP faces trying to take out a popular Democrat in Maryland.

 

In an election match-up, 58% say they’d vote for Mikulski if the election were held today, while 34% say they’ll vote for Republican State Senator E.J. Pipkin, with 1% each going to Maria Allwine, the Green Party candidate, and Thomas Trump, the Constitution Party candidate, and 6% are undecided.

 

Mikulski leads in four of the five regions in Maryland, but her margin on the Eastern Shore and Southern MD is razor thin.  With Pipkin currently up in Western MD, Mikulski might lose a region of the state for the first time since 1986.

 

 

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

44%

Disapprove

53%

No Answer

3%

 

 

 

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Party

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

22%

75%