Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

www.garesearch.com

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

Most Important Issue

Slots

Baltimore City Public Schools

Presidential and U.S. Senate Contests

 

 

March 2004

 

 

 

Contact: Patrick Gonzales    410-974-4669

 

 

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from March 19th through March 24th, 2004.  A total of 825 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         410   (50%)

 

White        622   (75%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md   107    (13%)

Female      415   (50%)

Black        187   (23%)

Baltimore City             82    (10%)

 

Other/Ref   16 

Baltimore Suburbs     279    (34%)

 

 

Washington Suburbs  263    (32%)

 

 

Western Maryland       94    (11%)

Party Registration

 

 

 

Democrat         460   (56%)

 

 

 

Republican       264   (32%)

 

 

Independent     101   (12%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

Most Important Issue Facing Governor and Legislature

 

Statewide, a 27% plurality of Maryland voters say that education is the most important issue facing the Governor and Legislature today, while 18% say that it’s the budget deficit, and 13% say it’s the economy and jobs.  Other issues received only single-digit mention. 

 

                    Most Important Issue in Maryland

 

#1 Issue

Education

Deficit

 

 

 

March 2004

27%

18%

February 2004

24%

23%

August 2003

23%

29%

March 2003

12%

51%

January 2003

12%

46%

 

 

Education as the number one issue has been moving up over the past year.

 

 

Slots in Maryland

 

A majority of voters still favor legalizing slot machines in the state, but support has slipped slightly since the fall.  Statewide, 54% of Marylanders favor legalizing slot machines in the state, while 35% are opposed, and 11% offered no opinion. 

 

Slots

 

Favor

Oppose

No answer

 

 

 

 

March 2004

54%

35%

11%

October 2003

56%

34%

10%

August 2003

57%

31%

12%

March 2003

47%

45%

8%

January 2003

46%

40%

14%

August 2002

46%

37%

17%

 

 

The Washington suburbs remain the one jurisdiction in Maryland opposed to allowing slots into the state, with 51% against legalization.

 

Slots - General Assembly or Referendum

 

Attempting to discern how Marylanders would prefer having the issue of slots resolved, we asked the following question:

 

“On the issue of allowing slot machines in Maryland, which of the following do you believe is the better way for the state to make the decision:

 

·        The General Assembly should decide the issue this year before it adjourns in April, or

·        The issue should be sent to referendum and the voters of Maryland should decide it on this November’s ballot?”

 

Statewide, an overwhelming 79% say the issue should be sent to referendum for the voters to decide, compared to 18% who want the General Assembly to bring about a resolution.  Support for having the legislature decide the issue was greatest among Republican voters, but even among this bloc, 67% prefer that the issue be determined by a referendum.

 

 

 

Baltimore City Public Schools

 

Recently, a political showdown over the Baltimore City public school crisis was averted when Mayor Martin O’Malley’s administration decided to lend the school system enough money to deal with its immediate financial deficit.  But if the financial problems persist, a majority of Maryland voters think the State should step in and provide financial assistance to the City.

 

Fifty-eight percent say that if the financial problems of Baltimore City’s public school system become worse in the future, the State step in and help out, while 33% think that the City should continue to deal with the problem on its own.

 

Among African-American voters, 74% say the State should provide assistance if the problems keep on, and among whites, 53% think likewise.

 

By region, a majority of voters in every jurisdiction favors State assistance to the City, except for voters from the Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland, where 42% think the State should step in and 39% think Baltimore should continue to deal with the problem on its own. 

 

 

George W. Bush Job Approval

 

President Bush’s job approval rating in the Free State is up a little over the past month, but a plurality still disapproves of his performance in office.

 

Statewide, 45% approve of Bush’s job performance as president, while 47% disapprove, with 8% offering no opinion. 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

March 2004

45%

47%

8%

February 2004

41%

53%

6%

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%

28%

9%

January 2002

74%

16%

10%

May 2001

48%

34%

18%

February 2001

47%

34%

19%

 

Presidential Match-up

 

Four years ago Ralph Nader’s inclusion in the presidential contest drained votes that likely would have gone to Democrat Al Gore.  In several states where the balloting was extremely close -- Florida most notably -- this was decisive.  Nader today, however, seems to have almost no traction.

 

Statewide, 48% say they’ll vote for presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry, while 43% favor Bush, less than 1% say they will vote for Nader, and 9% are undecided.

 

 

U.S. Senate

   

Sixty-two percent of Maryland voters approve of the job Barbara Mikulski is doing as a United States Senator, while 23% disapprove.  By party affiliation, 81% of Democrats approve of the job she’s doing, 66% of independents approve, and 27% of Republicans support her performance in office (53% of GOP voters disapprove).

 

In a match-up with Republican nominee E.J. Pipkin, Mikulski enjoys a commanding 59% to 27% advantage, with 14% undecided.  Mikulski has an overwhelming lead with Democrats (79%-8%), and beats Pipkin among independents 57% to 18%.