Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

www.garesearch.com

Maryland Poll

Part 1

Most Important Issue

Governor Ehrlich Job Approval

U.S. Senate Contest

June 2004

Contact: Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4669

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc.

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from June 4^th through June 9^th, 2004. A total of 836 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 414 (50%)	White 641 (77%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 105 (13%)
Female 422 (50%)	Black 176 (21%)	Baltimore City 84 (10%)
	Other/Ref 19	Baltimore Suburbs 286 (34%)
		Washington Suburbs 266 (32%)
		Western Maryland 95 (11%)
Party Registration
Democrat 469 (56%)
Republican 264 (32%)
Independent 103 (12%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.		Frederick Co.
Charles Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Dorchester Co.				Washington Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Summary

Most Important Issue in Maryland

Education continues to be the number one concern for Maryland voters. Statewide, 24% say that education is the most important issue facing state government today, while 13% say it’s the budget deficit, 12% say it’s the economy and jobs, 11% now say health care costs are most important, 8% say crime, 7% say traffic, 6% say taxes, 4% say threat of terrorism, 4% say it’s growth and development, 3% say the environment is most important, and 3% say slots.

Concern over the state budget deficit pales dramatically compared to March of last year, when 51% cited it as the number one issue.

Most Important Issue in Maryland

#1 Issue	Education	State Deficit
June 2004	24%	13%
March 2004	27%	18%
February 2004	24%	23%
August 2003	23%	29%
March 2003	12%	51%
January 2003	12%	46%

Governor Ehrlich Job Approval

A majority of Maryland voters remain behind Governor Ehrlich, but his level of support has dropped five points since last summer. Statewide, 52% of Maryland voters say they approve of the job Ehrlich is doing, while 33% disapprove, and 15% offered no opinion.

Ehrlich Job Rating	Approve	Disapprove	No answer
June 2004	52%	33%	15%
December 2003	55%	27%	18%
August 2003	57%	30%	13%
March 2003	56%	29%	15%

During his tenure, Governor Ehrlich and his administration have made rigorous, consistent efforts appealing to his base supporters, and it’s working: 90% of Republicans approve of the job he’s doing, up six points from December of last year, and 71% of Baltimore suburbs voters support Ehrlich.

The dilemma these intensive appeals create, however, stems from an uncomplicated reality – for every political action, there is an equal and opposite political reaction. In this case, the opposite political reaction is that 47% of Democrats now say they disapprove of the Governor’s performance in office (up 8 points from December). And in Maryland, Democratic hegemony dictates the outcome of statewide elections.

In 2002, approximately 30 percent of state Democrats voted for Ehrlich, the same percentage that currently approve of his performance as governor.

Ehrlich is experiencing a rather large gender gap at the present. An overwhelming 63% of men support the Governor, while women are split down the middle: 41% approve of the job he’s doing and 40% disapprove.

U.S. Senate Contest

As summer nears, incumbent Senator Barbara Mikulski remains extremely popular with Maryland voters. Statewide, 65% approve of her performance in office, while 21% disapprove, and 14% had no opinion.

Mikulski enjoys tremendous approval among Democrats (84%), blacks (82%), and women (69%). A majority of voters in every sub-group, except for Republicans, approve of the job she’s doing. This comprises a formidable political combination in the Free State.

In a match-up with her Republican opponent, State Senator Edward E.J. Pipkin, Mikulski leads 61% to 30%, with 9% undecided.

U.S Senate Race	Mikulski	Pipkin	Undecided
June 2004	61%	30%	9%
March 2004	59%	27%	14%
October 2003	57%	26%	17%

QUESTION: What do you feel is the most important issue facing state government today?

Education 24%

State budget deficit 13%

Economy/jobs 12%

Health care costs/prescription drugs 11%

Crime/illegal drugs 8%

Traffic/transportation/roads 7%

Taxes 6%

Threat of terrorism/security 4%

Growth/development 4%

Environment 3%

Slots /gambling 3%

No answer 5%

Most important issue by Party

Democrat Republican Independent

Education 32% 12% 18%

State budget deficit 10% 13% 27%

Economy/jobs 16% 3% 17%

Health care costs/prescription drugs 14% 5% 13%

Crime/illegal drugs 6% 14% 2%

Traffic/transportation/roads 2% 17% 4%

Taxes 3% 13% 3%

Threat of terrorism/security 1% 10% 2%

Growth/development 4% 4% 3%

Environment 4% 2% 1%

Slots /gambling 2% 5% 1%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Approve	52%
Disapprove	33%
No Answer	15%

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?