Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

www.garesearch.com

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

Slots

Presidential Contest

 

 

 

August 2004

 

 

 

Contact: Patrick Gonzales    410-974-4669

 

 

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from August 10th through August 15th, 2004.  A total of 847 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         421   (50%)

 

White        647   (76%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md   108    (13%)

Female      426   (50%)

Black        185   (22%)

Baltimore City             86    (10%)

 

Other/Ref   15 

Baltimore Suburbs     288    (34%)

 

 

Washington Suburbs  271    (32%)

 

 

Western Maryland       94    (11%)

Party Registration

 

 

 

Democrat         481   (57%)

 

 

 

Republican       270   (32%)

 

 

Independent       96   (11%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

 

Slots in Maryland

 

A majority of voters in Maryland continue to say that they favor allowing slot machines.  Statewide, 55% of Maryland voters favor allowing slot machines in the state, while 38% are opposed to having slots, and 7% gave no opinion. 

 

Slots

 

Favor

Oppose

No answer

 

 

 

 

August 2004

55%

38%

7%

March 2004

54%

35%

11%

October 2003

56%

34%

10%

August 2003

57%

31%

12%

March 2003

47%

45%

8%

January 2003

46%

40%

14%

August 2002

46%

37%

17%

 

 

Support for allowing slots shows in every region of the state except for the Washington suburbs, where a significant 55% majority oppose having slots brought into Maryland.

 

Seventy-one percent of Republicans say they favor slots, while only 48% of Democrats and 44% of independents support the idea.

 

 

 

Slots Referendum

 

An overwhelming 83% of Marylanders favor having the issue of slots placed as a referendum on November’s ballot allowing the voters to decide whether or not slot machines should be legalized in Maryland, while only 12% are opposed to a referendum.

 

Huge support for a referendum spans all demographic sub-groups.  Additionally, 89% of those who favor allowing slots favor a referendum, 78% of those who oppose allowing slots favor a referendum, and 63% of those with no opinion on slots still favor having a referendum this November.

 

 

 

Slots Location

 

To gauge voter tolerance for having a slots facility in their area we asked voters whether or not they would support having a facility at three distinct distances -- within 25 miles of their home, within 10 miles of their home, and within 5 miles of their home.

 

The results:

 

 

Support

Oppose

 

Within 25 miles

 

52%

 

45%

Within 10 miles

43%

53%

Within 5 miles

32%

63%

 

 

A majority of voters in every region of the state would oppose having a slots facility placed within 5 miles of their home.

 

When support for slots is cross-tabulated by support for location, we discover interesting results.  Eighty-eight percent of those who favor slots would support a location within 25 miles of their home, and 74% of those who favor slots would support a location within 10 miles of their home, but barely half (54%) of those who favor slots would support a location within 5 miles of their home.

 

 

 

George W. Bush Job Approval and Presidential Match-up

 

A majority of Maryland voters continue to disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president.

 

Statewide, 43% approve of the job Bush is doing, while 51% disapprove, and 6% offered no opinion on his performance in office. 

 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

August 2004

43%

51%

6%

June 2004

39%

54%

7%

March 2004

45%

47%

8%

February 2004

41%

53%

6%

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%

28%

9%

January 2002

74%

16%

10%

May 2001

48%

34%

18%

February 2001