Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

www.garesearch.com

Maryland Poll

Slots

Presidential Contest

August 2004

Contact: Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4669

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc.

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from August 10^th through August 15^th, 2004. A total of 847 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 421 (50%)	White 647 (76%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 108 (13%)
Female 426 (50%)	Black 185 (22%)	Baltimore City 86 (10%)
	Other/Ref 15	Baltimore Suburbs 288 (34%)
		Washington Suburbs 271 (32%)
		Western Maryland 94 (11%)
Party Registration
Democrat 481 (57%)
Republican 270 (32%)
Independent 96 (11%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.		Frederick Co.
Charles Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Dorchester Co.				Washington Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Summary

Slots in Maryland

A majority of voters in Maryland continue to say that they favor allowing slot machines. Statewide, 55% of Maryland voters favor allowing slot machines in the state, while 38% are opposed to having slots, and 7% gave no opinion.

Slots	Favor	Oppose	No answer
August 2004	55%	38%	7%
March 2004	54%	35%	11%
October 2003	56%	34%	10%
August 2003	57%	31%	12%
March 2003	47%	45%	8%
January 2003	46%	40%	14%
August 2002	46%	37%	17%

Support for allowing slots shows in every region of the state except for the Washington suburbs, where a significant 55% majority oppose having slots brought into Maryland.

Seventy-one percent of Republicans say they favor slots, while only 48% of Democrats and 44% of independents support the idea.

Slots Referendum

An overwhelming 83% of Marylanders favor having the issue of slots placed as a referendum on November’s ballot allowing the voters to decide whether or not slot machines should be legalized in Maryland, while only 12% are opposed to a referendum.

Huge support for a referendum spans all demographic sub-groups. Additionally, 89% of those who favor allowing slots favor a referendum, 78% of those who oppose allowing slots favor a referendum, and 63% of those with no opinion on slots still favor having a referendum this November.

Slots Location

To gauge voter tolerance for having a slots facility in their area we asked voters whether or not they would support having a facility at three distinct distances -- within 25 miles of their home, within 10 miles of their home, and within 5 miles of their home.

The results:

	Support	Oppose
Within 25 miles	52%	45%
Within 10 miles	43%	53%
Within 5 miles	32%	63%

A majority of voters in every region of the state would oppose having a slots facility placed within 5 miles of their home.

When support for slots is cross-tabulated by support for location, we discover interesting results. Eighty-eight percent of those who favor slots would support a location within 25 miles of their home, and 74% of those who favor slots would support a location within 10 miles of their home, but barely half (54%) of those who favor slots would support a location within 5 miles of their home.

George W. Bush Job Approval and Presidential Match-up

A majority of Maryland voters continue to disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president.

Statewide, 43% approve of the job Bush is doing, while 51% disapprove, and 6% offered no opinion on his performance in office.

Bush Job Rating	Approve	Disapprove	No answer
August 2004	43%	51%	6%
June 2004	39%	54%	7%
March 2004	45%	47%	8%
February 2004	41%	53%	6%
December 2003	47%	46%	7%
August 2003	43%	48%	9%
April 2003	62%	31%	7%
September 2002	63%	28%	9%
January 2002	74%	16%	10%
May 2001	48%	34%	18%
February 2001	47%	34%	19%

In an election match-up, the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards leads Bush and Dick Cheney by a commanding margin, 53% to 40%.

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose allowing slot machines in Maryland?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Favor	55%
Oppose	38%
Not Sure	7%

Party - Favor or oppose slot machines?

Party	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Democrat	48%	46%	6%
Republican	71%	24%	5%
Independent	44%	39%	17%

Gender – Favor or oppose slot machines?

Gender	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Men	58%	36%	6%
Women	52%	40%	8%

Race – Favor or oppose slot machines?

Race	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
White	58%	36%	6%
African- American	45%	45%	10%

Region - Favor or oppose slot machines?

Region	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Eastern Shore/ Southern MD	67%	28%	5%
Baltimore City	56%	31%	13%
Baltimore Suburbs	65%	30%	5%
Washington Suburbs	36%	55%	9%
Western Maryland	64%	32%	4%

QUESTION: Would you favor or oppose allowing voters to decide whether or not slot machines should be legalized in Maryland by having a referendum placed on this November’s general election ballot?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Favor	83%
Oppose	12%
Not Sure	5%

Party - Favor or oppose slots referendum?

Party	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Democrat	85%	11%	4%
Republican	82%	12%	6%
Independent	75%	16%	9%

Gender – Favor or oppose slots referendum?

Gender	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Men	83%	11%	6%
Women	83%	13%	4%

Race – Favor or oppose slots referendum?

Race	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
White	83%	12%	5%
African- American	84%	12%	4%

Region - Favor or oppose slots referendum?

Region	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Eastern Shore/ Southern MD	87%	7%	6%
Baltimore City	88%	9%	3%
Baltimore Suburbs	87%	8%	5%
Washington Suburbs	75%	20%	5%
Western Maryland	84%	12%	4%

Position on Slots by Position on Referendum Cross-tabulation

Slots by Referendum	Favor Referendum	Oppose Referendum
Favor Slots	89%	8%
Oppose Slots	78%	19%
Not sure	63%	5%

STATEMENT: Please indicate whether you generally agree or disagree: “I would support having a slot machine facility located within 25 miles of my home.”

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Agree	52%
Disagree	45%
No answer	3%

Party - Support slots facility within 25 miles of my home.

Party	Agree	Disagree	No answer
Democrat	45%	52%	3%
Republican	68%	30%	2%
Independent	42%	50%	8%

Region - Support slots facility within 25 miles of my home.

Region	Agree	Disagree	No answer
Eastern Shore/ Southern MD	55%	40%	5%
Baltimore City	51%	43%	6%
Baltimore Suburbs	63%	34%	3%
Washington Suburbs	36%	62%	2%
Western Maryland	62%	37%	1%

STATEMENT: “I would support having a slot machine facility located within 10 miles of my home.”

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Agree	43%
Disagree	53%
No answer	4%

Party - Support slots facility within 10 miles of my home.

Party	Agree	Disagree	No answer
Democrat	35%	60%	5%
Republican	61%	37%	2%
Independent	33%	63%	4%

Region - Support slots facility within 10 miles of my home.

Region	Agree	Disagree	No answer
Eastern Shore/ Southern MD	54%	44%	2%
Baltimore City	47%	48%	5%
Baltimore Suburbs	49%	45%	6%
Washington Suburbs	26%	71%	3%
Western Maryland	58%	40%	2%

STATEMENT: “I would support having a slot machine facility located within 5 miles of my home.”

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Agree	32%
Disagree	63%
No answer	5%

Party - Support slots facility within 5 miles of my home.

Party	Agree	Disagree	No answer
Democrat	27%	66%	7%
Republican	42%	56%	2%
Independent	26%	69%	5%

Region - Support slots facility within 5 miles of my home.

Region	Agree	Disagree	No answer
Eastern Shore/ Southern MD	45%	51%	4%
Baltimore City	41%	52%	7%
Baltimore Suburbs	33%	60%	7%
Washington Suburbs	18%	79%	3%
Western Maryland	48%	50%	2%

Favor Allowing Slots by Location Cross-tabulations

Favor Slots by Location	Support Within 25 miles	Oppose Within 25 miles
Favor Slots	88%	11%

Favor Slots by Location	Support Within 10 miles	Oppose Within 10 miles
Favor Slots	74%	24%

Favor Slots by Location	Support Within 5 miles	Oppose Within 5 miles
Favor Slots	54%	42%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Approve	43%
Disapprove	51%
No Answer	6%

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Party	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Democrat	19%	77%	4%
Republican	86%	4%	10%
Independent	43%	50%	7%

Gender – Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Gender	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Men	48%	47%	5%
Women	38%	55%	7%

Race – Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Race	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
White	53%	43%	4%
African- American	10%	78%	12%

QUESTION: If the November 2004 general election for president were held today, for whom would you vote: the Republican ticket of George Bush and Dick Cheney, or the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Kerry	53%
Bush	40%
Undecided	7%

Party – November 2004 Presidential contest?

Party	Kerry	Bush	Undecided
Democrat	78%	16%	6%
Republican	9%	85%	6%
Independent	50%	34%	16%

Gender – November 2004 Presidential contest?

Gender	Kerry	Bush	Undecided
Men	49%	45%	6%
Women	57%	35%	8%

Race – November 2004 Presidential contest?

Race	Kerry	Bush	Undecided
White	45%	49%	6%
African- American	80%	9%	11%