Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

www.garesearch.com

Maryland Poll

Presidential Contest

Most Important Issue

Baltimore Orioles

February 2004

Contact: Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4669

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc.

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from February 3^rd through February 8^th, 2004. A total of 818 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

This survey also includes a sample of 326 likely March 2^nd Democratic primary voters. The margin for error on this sample is plus or minus 6 percentage points.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 401 (49%)	White 629 (77%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 105 (13%)
Female 417 (51%)	Black 172 (21%)	Baltimore City 83 (10%)
	Other/Ref 17	Baltimore Suburbs 278 (34%)
		Washington Suburbs 259 (32%)
		Western Maryland 93 (11%)
Party Registration
Democrat 457 (56%)
Republican 261 (32%)
Independent 100 (12%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.		Frederick Co.
Charles Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Dorchester Co.				Washington Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Democratic Primary Sample Demographics

Gender	Race
Male 138 (42%)	White 221 (68%)
Female 188 (58%)	Black 98 (30%)
	Other/Ref 7

Summary

Democratic Presidential Primary

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry has surged into the lead in Maryland as former front-runner Howard Dean has faltered. Among likely Democratic primary voters, 45% say they’ll vote for Kerry on March 2^nd, while 14% support Dean, 8% back North Carolina Senator John Edwards, and 7% support Wesley Clark.

The number one issue for Democrats appears to be electability. We read Democratic primary voters a list of factors that might influence their vote and asked how important it was to them – 78% say it is very important to have “a candidate who can beat George Bush in November.” Among this group, 55% say they’ll vote for Kerry next month.

Bush Job Approval

President George Bush’s job rating in Maryland has dropped significantly over the past 2 months. Statewide, 41% approve of Bush’s job performance, while 53% disapprove, and 6% offered no opinion. In December, a 47% plurality approved of his performance.

Bush Job Rating	Approve	Disapprove	No answer
February 2004	41%	53%	6%
December 2003	47%	46%	7%
August 2003	43%	48%	9%
April 2003	62%	31%	7%
September 2002	63%	28%	9%
January 2002	74%	16%	10%
May 2001	48%	34%	18%
February 2001	47%	34%	19%

Eighty-three percent of Republicans approve of the job he’s doing as president, while 76% of Democrats disapprove. Among independents, 37% approve and 58% say they disapprove.

General Election Match-up

Bush’s decline here has widened the natural advantage Democrats have in Maryland. In an election match-up, Senator Kerry enjoys a commanding lead over President Bush, leading 51% to 40%, with 9% undecided. Each has overwhelming leads with their own party voters, but Kerry at this point is ahead among independents, 55% to 37%.

Most Important Issue

For the first time in a year, education has moved ahead of Maryland's budget deficit as the number one issue for voters. Statewide, 24% say that education is the most important issue facing the Governor and Legislature today, 23% say it’s the budget deficit, and 12% say it’s the economy. Other issues received single-digit mention. A look at Maryland’s most important issue over the past year:

#1 Issue	Education	Deficit
February 2004	24%	23%
August 2003	23%	29%
March 2003	12%	51%
January 2003	12%	46%

A Fee or a Tax?

Discussions about balancing the state budget have included both budget reduction and new revenues, including tax increases and raising various user fees. Attempting to determine if voters make a distinction between different revenue increases, we asked the following: “If state government raises the cost of automobile license tag renewal, do you consider this the same as a tax increase, or not?” Statewide, 68% assert that they think raising the cost of automobile tag renewal is the same as a tax increase, while 29% say it’s not. The attitude that it’s the same as a tax increase spanned all political parties.

Sixty-six percent believe that raising tolls in Maryland’s tunnels and bridges is the same as a tax increase, 32% believe it’s not the same, and 2% had no opinion.

Baltimore Orioles

Statewide, 42% think the Baltimore Orioles will be a better, more competitive team as a results of new players signed during the off-season, 17% don’t think they’ll be any better, and 41% weren’t sure.

And 13% state that because of these signings they are more likely to attend games at Camden Yards this season. Thirteen percent might not be a lot in a political contest, but in this context it has the potential to substantially impact the Orioles’ overall attendance numbers.

Eighteen percent say the announced increase in ticket prices is justified by these new signings, while 69% say they’re not.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Approve	41%
Disapprove	53%
No Answer	6%

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Party

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer