Gonzales Research &
Marketing Strategies
www.garesearch.com

Presidential
Contest
Most Important
Issue
February 2004
Contact:
Methodology
Patrick
E. Gonzales graduated from the
Over the
past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in
Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy
Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and
communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.
Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the
This
survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from February 3rd through
The margin for error, according to customary
statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage
points. There is a 95 percent
probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire
survey universe were sampled. The margin
for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party
affiliation.
This survey also includes a sample of 326 likely
March 2nd Democratic primary voters.
The margin for error on this sample is plus or minus 6 percentage
points.
|
Gender |
Race |
Region |
|
Male 401
(49%) |
White 629
(77%) |
Eastern
Shore/S Md 105 (13%) |
|
Female 417
(51%) |
Black 172
(21%) |
|
|
|
Other/Ref
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Party
Registration |
|
|
|
Democrat 457
(56%) |
|
|
|
Republican 261 (32%) |
|
|
|
Independent 100
(12%) |
|
|
Regional Groupings are
as follows:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Calvert
Co. |
|
Anne
Arundel Co. |
Montgomery Co. |
Allegany
Co. |
|
Caroline
Co. |
|
Baltimore
Co. |
|
Carroll
Co. |
|
Cecil
Co. |
|
Harford
Co. |
|
Frederick
Co. |
|
Charles
Co. |
|
Howard
Co. |
|
Garrett
Co. |
|
Dorchester
Co. |
|
|
|
Washington
Co. |
|
Kent
Co. |
|
|
|
|
|
Queen
Anne’s |
|
|
|
|
|
Somerset
Co. |
|
|
|
|
|
St.
Mary’s |
|
|
|
|
|
Talbot
Co. |
|
|
|
|
|
Wicomico
Co. |
|
|
|
|
|
Worcester
Co. |
|
|
|
|
Democratic Primary Sample Demographics
|
Gender |
Race |
|
Male 138
(42%) |
White 221
(68%) |
|
Female 188
(58%) |
Black 98
(30%) |
|
|
Other/Ref
7 |
Summary
President
George Bush’s job rating in
|
Bush Job Rating |
Approve |
Disapprove |
No answer |
|
|
|
|
|
|
February 2004 |
41% |
53% |
6% |
|
December 2003 |
47% |
46% |
7% |
|
August 2003 |
43% |
48% |
9% |
|
April 2003 |
62% |
31% |
7% |
|
September 2002 |
63% |
28% |
9% |
|
January 2002 |
74% |
16% |
10% |
|
May 2001 |
48% |
34% |
18% |
|
February 2001 |
47% |
34% |
19% |
Eighty-three
percent of Republicans approve of the job he’s doing as president, while 76% of
Democrats disapprove. Among
independents, 37% approve and 58% say they disapprove.
General
Election Match-up
Bush’s
decline here has widened the natural advantage Democrats have in
|
#1 Issue |
Education |
Deficit |
|
|
|
|
|
February 2004 |
24% |
23% |
|
August 2003 |
23% |
29% |
|
March 2003 |
12% |
51% |
|
January 2003 |
12% |
46% |
Sixty-six percent believe that raising tolls in
Eighteen percent say the announced increase in ticket prices is justified by these new signings, while 69% say they’re not.
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush
is doing as president?
Statewide Results
|
Response |
Statewide |
|
|
|
|
Approve |
41% |
|
Disapprove |
53% |
|
No Answer |
6% |
Party - Approve or disapprove of the
job George Bush is doing as president?
|
Party |
Approve |
Disapprove |
No Answer |
|
|
|
|
|