Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

www.garesearch.com

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

Presidential Contest

Most Important Issue

Baltimore Orioles

 

February 2004

 

 

 

Contact: Patrick Gonzales    410-974-4669

 

 

 


 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from February 3rd through February 8th, 2004.  A total of 818 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

 

This survey also includes a sample of 326 likely March 2nd Democratic primary voters.  The margin for error on this sample is plus or minus 6 percentage points. 

 

 

 


Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         401   (49%)

 

White        629   (77%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md   105    (13%)

Female      417   (51%)

Black        172   (21%)

Baltimore City             83    (10%)

 

Other/Ref   17 

Baltimore Suburbs     278    (34%)

 

 

Washington Suburbs  259    (32%)

 

 

Western Maryland       93    (11%)

 

 

 

Party Registration

 

 

 

Democrat         457   (56%)

 

 

 

Republican       261   (32%)

 

 

Independent     100   (12%)

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Democratic Primary Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

 

Male         138   (42%)

 

White        221   (68%)

Female      188   (58%)

Black          98   (30%)

 

Other/Ref     7 

 


Summary

 

Democratic Presidential Primary

 

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry has surged into the lead in Maryland as former front-runner Howard Dean has faltered.  Among likely Democratic primary voters, 45% say they’ll vote for Kerry on March 2nd, while 14% support Dean, 8% back North Carolina Senator John Edwards, and 7% support Wesley Clark.

 

 

 

 

The number one issue for Democrats appears to be electability.  We read Democratic primary voters a list of factors that might influence their vote and asked how important it was to them – 78% say it is very important to have “a candidate who can beat George Bush in November.”  Among this group, 55% say they’ll vote for Kerry next month.

 

 

 

Bush Job Approval

 

President George Bush’s job rating in Maryland has dropped significantly over the past 2 months.  Statewide, 41% approve of Bush’s job performance, while 53% disapprove, and 6% offered no opinion.  In December, a 47% plurality approved of his performance.

 

 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

February 2004

41%

53%

6%

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%

28%

9%

January 2002

74%

16%

10%

May 2001

48%

34%

18%

February 2001

47%

34%

19%

 

 

Eighty-three percent of Republicans approve of the job he’s doing as president, while 76% of Democrats disapprove.  Among independents, 37% approve and 58% say they disapprove.

 

 

General Election Match-up

 

Bush’s decline here has widened the natural advantage Democrats have in Maryland.  In an election match-up, Senator Kerry enjoys a commanding lead over President Bush, leading 51% to 40%, with 9% undecided.  Each has overwhelming leads with their own party voters, but Kerry at this point is ahead among independents, 55% to 37%.

 

 

 

Most Important Issue

 

For the first time in a year, education has moved ahead of Maryland's budget deficit as the number one issue for voters.  Statewide, 24% say that education is the most important issue facing the Governor and Legislature today, 23% say it’s the budget deficit, and 12% say it’s the economy.  Other issues received single-digit mention.  A look at Maryland’s most important issue over the past year:

 

#1 Issue

Education

Deficit

 

 

 

February 2004

24%

23%

August 2003

23%

29%

March 2003

12%

51%

January 2003

12%

46%

 


A Fee or a Tax?

 

Discussions about balancing the state budget have included both budget reduction and new revenues, including tax increases and raising various user fees.  Attempting to determine if voters make a distinction between different revenue increases, we asked the following: “If state government raises the cost of automobile license tag renewal, do you consider this the same as a tax increase, or not?”   Statewide, 68% assert that they think raising the cost of automobile tag renewal is the same as a tax increase, while 29% say it’s not.  The attitude that it’s the same as a tax increase spanned all political parties.

 

Sixty-six percent believe that raising tolls in Maryland’s tunnels and bridges is the same as a tax increase, 32% believe it’s not the same, and 2% had no opinion.

 

 

Baltimore Orioles

 

Statewide, 42% think the Baltimore Orioles will be a better, more competitive team as a results of new players signed during the off-season, 17% don’t think they’ll be any better, and 41% weren’t sure.

 

And 13% state that because of these signings they are more likely to attend games at Camden Yards this season.  Thirteen percent might not be a lot in a political contest, but in this context it has the potential to substantially impact the Orioles’ overall attendance numbers.

 

Eighteen percent say the announced increase in ticket prices is justified by these new signings, while 69% say they’re not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

41%

Disapprove

53%

No Answer

6%

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Party

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

18%

76%

6%

Republican

83%

11%

6%

Independent

37%

58%

5%

 

 

Gender - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Gender

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Male

43%

49%

8%

Female

39%

57%

4%

 

 

Race - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Race

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

White

50%

45%

5%

African- American

 

7%

 

84%

 

9%

 

 

 

 

 


QUESTION: If the November 2004 general election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were George Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Kerry

51%

Bush

40%

Undecided

9%

 

Party - George Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat?

 

 

Party

Kerry

Bush

Undecided

 

 

 

 

Democrat

       77%

16%

7%

Republican

4%

84%

12%

Independent

55%

37%

8%

 


QUESTION: What do you feel is the most important issue facing the Governor and Legislature today?

 

Education                                             24%

Budget deficit                                       23%

Economy/jobs                                      12%

Health care/prescription drugs     7%

Traffic/transportation                               7%

Crime/illegal drugs                                  6%

Taxes                                                     5%

Threat of terrorism/security                     4%

Environment                                           3%

Slots /gambling                           3%

Growth/development                              2%

No answer                                             4%

 

 


QUESTION:  If state government raises the cost of automobile license tag renewal, do you consider this the same as a tax increase, or not?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Yes

68%

No

29%

No Answer

3%

 

Party - If state government raises the cost of automobile license tag renewal, do you consider this the same as a tax increase, or not?

 

 

Party

Yes

No

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

64%

33%

3%

Republican

71%

27%

2%

Independent

79%

17%

4%

 

 

QUESTION:  If state government raises the user fee tolls for Maryland’s tunnels and bridges, do you consider this the same as a tax increase, or not?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Yes

66%

No

32%

No Answer

2%

 

Party - If state government raises the user fee tolls for Maryland’s tunnels and bridges, do you consider this the same as a tax increase, or not?

 

 

Party

Yes

No

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

63%

35%

2%

Republican

68%

31%

1%

Independent

76%

21%

3%

QUESTION:  As you may know, the Baltimore Orioles signed a number of new players during this past off-season.  Do you think the Orioles will be better, more competitive team as a result, or not?     

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Yes

42%

No

17%

Not sure

41%

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:  Are you more likely to attend games this coming season as a result of these new signings, or not?     

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Yes

13%

No

80%

Not sure

7%

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:  Do you think the announced increase in ticket prices is justified by these new signings, or not?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Yes

18%

No

69%

Not sure

13%

 

 


**********    326 Likely March 2nd  2004 Democratic Primary Voters    **********

 

 

QUESTION:  If the March 2nd Democratic primary election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were:

 

John Kerry                               45%

Howard Dean                           14%

John Edwards                              8%

Wesley Clark                              7%

Al Sharpton                                 3%

Dennis Kucinich                           2%

Undecided                                21%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

“Please tell me how important the following factors will be for you when casting your vote on March 2nd for a Democratic presidential candidate”:

 

 

Overall Results

 

 

“Very Important” Response”

A candidate who can beat George Bush in November

 

78%

A candidate who stands up for what he believes

 

77%

 

A candidate who has a positive message

 

64%

A candidate who agrees with you on the issues

 

59%

 

 

 


**********    326 Likely March 2nd  2004 Democratic Primary Voters    **********

 

QUESTION:  A candidate who can beat George Bush in November?

 

Very important 78%

Somewhat important     10%                

Not that important          5%

Not at all important         6%                

No answer                     1%

 

Vote breakdown among those who consider “A candidate who can beat George Bush” “Very Important.”

 

John Kerry                               55%

Howard Dean                              9%

John Edwards                              8%

Wesley Clark                              6%

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:  A candidate who agrees with you on the issues?

 

Very important 59%

Somewhat important     30%                

Not that important          3%

Not at all important         1%                

No answer                     7%

 

Vote breakdown among those who consider “A candidate who agrees with you on the issues” “Very Important.”

 

John Kerry                               47%

Howard Dean                           20%

John Edwards                              9%

Wesley Clark                              5%


**********    326 Likely March 2nd  2004 Democratic Primary Voters    **********

 

QUESTION:  A candidate who has a positive message?

 

Very important 64%

Somewhat important     15%                

Not that important          6%

Not at all important         7%                

No answer                     8%

 

Vote breakdown among those who consider “A candidate who has a positive message” “Very Important.”

 

John Kerry                               52%

John Edwards                           11%

Wesley Clark                              7%

Howard Dean                              6%

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:  A candidate who stands up for what he believes?

 

Very important 77%

Somewhat important     18%                

Not that important          2%

Not at all important         1%                

No answer                     2%

 

Vote breakdown among those who consider “A candidate who stands up for what he believes” “Very Important.”

 

John Kerry                               46%

Howard Dean                           16%

John Edwards                              7%

Wesley Clark                              6%