Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

www.garesearch.com

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

 

 

December 2003

 

 

 

 

Contact: Patrick Gonzales    410-974-4669

 

 

 

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from December 3rd through December 7th, 2003.  A total of 806 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         399   (50%)

 

White        621   (77%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md   102    (13%)

Female      407   (50%)

Black        173   (21%)

Baltimore City             82    (10%)

 

Other/Ref   12 

Baltimore Suburbs     275    (34%)

 

 

Washington Suburbs  257    (32%)

 

 

Western Maryland       90    (11%)

 

 

 

Party Registration

 

 

 

Democrat         455   (56%)

 

 

 

Republican       254   (32%)

 

 

Independent       97   (12%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

State Issues

 

Ehrlich Job Approval

 

Statewide, 55% of Maryland voters say they approve of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor, while 27% disapprove, and 18% offered no opinion.  GOP voters, at 84%, overwhelmingly support Ehrlich; Democrats are split (38% approve/39% disapprove). In the Free State a popular Republican incumbent needs to keep about a third of the Democratic vote content to remain in office.

 

Ehrlich’s job approval numbers have remained very consistent since he took office a year ago.

 

 

 

 

Thornton Commission

 

We asked Maryland voters the following question in an effort to reconcile the mandated recommendations of the Thornton Commission and the State’s continuing budget problems:  “Despite a projected budget deficit of $780 million in the coming year, the State of Maryland has made a commitment to increase funding for public education by $380 million this year as recommended by the Thornton Commission.  Do you think it’s more important to fully fund Thornton this year, or should the State spread out funding for Thornton over a longer period in order to deal with the deficit?

 

The option of spreading out increased education funding over a longer period was favored by 54% to 35%, with 11% offering no opinion.  A plurality among all demographic sub-groups included, except for black voters, is in support of a longer time period. 

 

However, with Democrats and women the plurality is very narrow.  This promises to be a major issue for the upcoming General Assembly session. 

 

 

National Issues

 

Bush Job Approval

 

A little less than a year before the next election, President George Bush’s job rating in Maryland stands at 47% approve and 46% disapprove.  Republicans overwhelmingly approve of the job he’s doing and Democrats overwhelmingly disapprove.  His overall numbers are actually a slight bump up from our August survey.

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%

28%

9%

January 2002

74%

16%

10%

May 2001

48%

34%

18%

February 2001

47%

34%

19%

 

 

 

 

Presidential Match-up

 

Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Democratic front-runner at this point, has opened up a seven-point lead over Bush in Maryland, 48% to 41%.  In our August survey, Dean and Bush were nearly dead even.  Dean’s lead over Bush reflects his surging campaign and Maryland’s Democratic hegemony in national elections.

 

 

Economic Situation

 

We asked voters whether they felt their own personal economic situation had improved, stayed the same, or gotten worse over the past year.  Statewide, 31% say it’s improved, 28% say it’s gotten worse, and 41% indicated it’s stayed the same.  An examination by part is illuminating:  only 19% of Democrats say their personal finances have improved over the past year, while 42% claim they’re worse; Republicans are flipped, 53% say their economic situation has improved and only 5% say it’s gotten worse.

 

 

Iraq

 

By a margin of 48 % to 40%, Marylanders disapprove of George Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq.  Independents mirror the overall split, while Democrats strongly oppose the President and Republicans strongly support him. 

 

When asked whether they think it was worth going to war with Iraq, or not, 36% say it was worth it and 51% say it wasn’t.  Again, there’s a huge chasm between Democrats and Republicans.

 

Maryland voters are divided on whether they think the war in Iraq has made the United States safer from terrorism.  Thirty-two percent think the war has made the country safer, 26% think it’s made us less safe, and 42% think the war has had no real effect on our safety with respect to terrorism.

 

 

 

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

55%

Disapprove

27%

No Answer

18%

 

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

 

 

Party

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

38%

39%

23%

Republican

84%

7%

9%

Independent

58%

25%

17%

 

 

Gender - Approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

 

 

Gender

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Male

65%

21%

14%

Female

45%

33%