Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

www.garesearch.com

Maryland Poll - Part 1

Ehrlich Job Approval

Mikulski “Re-elect”

Slots

August 2003

Contact: Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4669

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research.

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from August 13^th through August 20^th, 2003. A total of 829 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed. A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 410 (49%)	White 631 (76%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 94 (11%)
Female 419 (51%)	Black 182 (22%)	Baltimore City 80 (10%)
	Other/Ref 16	Baltimore Suburbs 298 (36%)
		Washington Suburbs 257 (31%)
		Western Maryland 100 (12%)
Party Registration
Democrat 469 (57%)
Republican 265 (32%)
Independent 95 (11%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.	Charles Co.	Frederick Co.
Dorchester Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Kent Co.				Washington Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Summary

Most Important Issue

Maryland's budget deficit persists as the number one issue for voters, cited by 29%, with education second at 23%, and the economy third at 10%; followed by crime, health care, transportation issues, gambling, taxes, growth, the environment, and gun control.

Bob Ehrlich

Governor Bob Ehrlich remains popular with Maryland voters as 57% say they approve of the job he’s doing as governor, while 30% say they disapprove.

Ehrlich’s job approval among Republicans is extremely high at 85%, and 60% of independents also approve. Sixty-four percent of men and 50% of women approve of the job he’s doing. Among Democrats, 41% approve of his job performance and 47% disapprove.

The Governor’s job rating has held steady over the past six months:

Ehrlich Job Rating	Approve	Disapprove	No answer
August 2003	57%	30%	13%
March 2003	56%	29%	15%

Barbara Mikulski

Even more popular than our Governor is our diminutive junior U.S. Senator: Barbara Mikulski’s performance in office is approved by 64% of Maryland voters, while only 24% disapprove and 12% offered no opinion.

Three-term incumbent Mikulski receives estimable approval among Democrats (82%), women (75%) and independents (63%). Her only soft spot is with the Governor’s most avid supporters: 48% of GOP voters disapprove of the job Mikulski is doing in Washington.

Adding to the state GOP party’s election dilemma next year (the party’s been aggressively searching for a viable candidate to challenge her) is Mikulski’s “re-elect” number. Fifty-three percent of Maryland voters say they’ll vote to re-elect Mikulski in November 2004, while a mere 13% say they will definitely vote to replace her

Even among Republicans, less than a third (31%) say at this point they’ll definitely vote against her. The reality is most probably will eventually, but she does not arouse the partisan passion among regular GOP voters that might aid the state Republican party’s recruitment effort. And since she’s been in the Senate for nearly 20 years, and represented Baltimore in the House of Representatives for ten years before that, it’s safe to assume Marylanders feel they know Mikulski pretty well.

Slots and Gambling

The budget deficit in Maryland – and fallout from it – has produced a dramatic shift in voter attitudes toward slot machines: 57% of voters now say they favor allowing slots at Maryland racetracks. This is the first time in the years we’ve been polling on the issue that a majority has indicated support for slots in Maryland.

Slots	Favor	Oppose	No answer
August 2003	57%	31%	12%
March 2003	47%	45%	8%
January 2003	46%	40%	14%
August 2002	46%	37%	17%

Majority support for allowing slots in Maryland touches every demographic subgroup, party, gender, race, and region. Even in the Washington suburbs, where opposition to slots has always been strong, a majority now says that they favor allowing slot machines. How long support for slots remains is likely a function of the state government’s handling of the deficit, and specifics attached to any new slots proposal. The proposal passed by the Maryland Senate this past session (subsequently squashed in the House) was not well received by Maryland voters, as the 45% opposition in our March poll attests.

Reaction to casinos in Maryland is mixed, with 46% in favor and 42% opposing. Forty percent of state voters favor banning gambling interests from contributing to political campaigns here and 49% would oppose a ban.

QUESTION: What do you feel is the most important issue facing the state of Maryland today?

Budget deficit 29%

Education 23%

Economy 10%

Crime/illegal drugs 8%

Health care/prescription drugs 6%

Traffic/transportation 5%

Slots at racetracks/gambling 5%

Taxes 3%

Growth/development 2%

Environment 2%

Gun control 1%

No answer 6%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Approve	57%
Disapprove	30%
No Answer	13%

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

Party	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Democrat	41%	47%	12%
Republican	85%	4%	11%
Independent	60%	17%	23%

Gender - Approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

Gender	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Male	64%	24%