This
survey is provided free of charge. We
ask only that Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis
be credited in any story or editorial.
Research &
Communications, Inc
Maryland Poll
January 2000
Part I
Statewide
Issues
Contact: Carol Arscott
410-461-5744
Methodology
Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol
A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign
Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999.
Gonzales is a 1981 graduate
of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County
Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998
campaign for County Executive. Arscott
is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a
former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party.
Gonzales and Arscott
together have over 30 years of professional experience in politics. They have served as pollsters and
consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s,
including County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker,
Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty
Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.
This survey was conducted by
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from January 7th through
January 11th, 2000. A total
of 826 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed by telephone. All stated they regularly vote in statewide
general elections. A cross-section of
calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general
election voting patterns.
The margin for error,
according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5
percentage points. This means that
there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within
this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any
demographic subgroup, such as gender, race, or region.
Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics
|
Gender Male 409 (50%) Female 417 (50%) |
|
Party Democrat 470 (57%) Republican 272 (33%) Independent 84 (10%) |
|
Race White 628 (76%) Black 187 (23%) Other 11 |
|
Region Eastern Shore/So. MD 99 (12%) Baltimore City 86 (10%) Baltimore Suburbs 279 (34%) Washington Suburbs 269 (33%) Western MD 93 (11%) |
Regional
Groupings
Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, St. Mary’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.
Baltimore City - includes voters in the City of Baltimore.
Baltimore Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.
Washington Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, and Prince George’s.
Western Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.
General
Summary & Analysis
Two
hardy perennials, education and crime, tops the list of concerns of Maryland
voters at the start of the 2000 session of the General Assembly. Statewide, 26% named education as the most
important issue facing Maryland today, followed by crime and drugs at 22%. Taxes and budget issues (11%), roads and
traffic (8%), the environment (5%), growth and development (5%), and health
care (4%) round out the responses to the open-ended question. Seven percent of respondents gave some other
answer, and the remaining 12% offered no response.
Fifty-seven
percent of women surveyed concentrated their responses in the top two concerns,
and in both cases were more likely than men to offer that response. Women (32%) were more likely than men (20%)
to name education as the top concern.
Similarly, women (25%) were more likely than men (19%) to cite crime and
drugs as the most important issue. On
the flip, men (15%) were twice as likely as women (7%) to cite taxes and budget
issues as their Number One concern.
Maryland
Governor Parris N. Glendening posts an impressive statewide job approval rating
of 56% a year into his second term.
Thirty-four percent of voters surveyed disapproved of the job he is
doing as governor, while the remaining 10% offered no answer.
Glendening
earns the enthusiastic support of African-American voters (86%), Baltimore City
residents (76%), and his fellow Democrats (73%), and his job performance is
warmly regarded by women (64%) and voters in the Washington suburbs (64%). Least pleased are Republicans (31%), voters
on the Eastern Shore and in Southern Maryland (38%).
Glendening
gets a plurality of support among men (48% to 42%) and whites (47% to
42%). Among independents (40% to 46%)
and voters in Western Maryland (44% to 48%), his performance in office is
narrowly disapproved.
Lieutenant
Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend still has the Midas touch. Sixty-two percent of Maryland voters
surveyed approve of the job she is doing, while 22% disapprove, close to a 3:1
ratio. Sixteen percent offered no
answer.
Townsend
posts enviable numbers in nearly every demographic subgroup in the survey – her
approval numbers drop below 50% only among Republicans (36%) and among Western
Maryland voters (47%) – and her job approval rating is downright stratospheric
among African-Americans at 90%.
Somewhat closer to Earth are Baltimore City residents (80%), Democrats
(79%), and women (69%).
If
any of Townsend’s potential rivals in the 2002 gubernatorial election were
hoping to see fallout from the Baltimore Sun’s
series on the Juvenile Justice Administration in this survey, they will be
disappointed: Her disapproval numbers
are actually a little higher in the DC suburbs (21%) than in the Baltimore area
(16%), where the story ran.
With yet another session of the General Assembly opening amidst scandal, do Maryland voters feel that the level of corruption here is worse than in other states? Apparently not: Two-thirds (67%) of voters surveyed said they believe that the level of corruption in Maryland is about the same as in other states, while only 15% believe the level of corruption in Maryland politics is higher than elsewhere, and 6% think it is lower. The remaining 12% gave no answer.
Respondents
answering “about the same” do so in big numbers across the board, with the
tally never dropping below 56% in any of the survey’s demographic
subgroups. Men (20%) are twice as likely
as women (10%) to believe that corruption is worse in Maryland, whites (18%)
more than four times as likely as blacks (4%), and Republicans (26%) three
times more likely than Democrats (9%) to believe that the level of corruption
is worse in Maryland than in other states.
So
while it may sometimes seem that we here in Maryland have more than our share
of scoundrels, the general opinion of state voters – informed by chronic
reports of political shenanigans in Washington and across the country – is that
we’re really no worse than anywhere else, however bad that is.
QUESTION: What
is the most important issue facing Maryland today?
|
|
Statewide |
Men |
Women |
|
Education |
26% |
20% |
32% |
|
Crime/Drugs |
22% |
19% |
25% |
|
Taxes/Budget
issues |
11% |
15% |
7% |
|
Roads/Traffic |
8% |
9% |
7% |
|
Environment |
5% |
6% |
4% |
|
Growth/Development |
5% |
7% |
3% |
|
Health
Care |
4% |
4% |
4% |
|
Other |
7% |
9% |
5% |
|
No
answer |
12% |
11% |
13% |
QUESTION: Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Parris Glendening is doing as governor?
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No Answer |
|
Statewide |
56% |
34% |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Eastern
Shore/So. MD |
38% |
53% |
9% |
|
Baltimore
City |
76% |
17% |
7% |
|
Baltimore
Suburbs |
52% |
38% |
10% |
|
Washington
Suburbs |
64% |
23% |
13% |
|
Western
MD |
44% |
48% |
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Male |
48% |
40% |
12% |
|
Female |
64% |
28% |
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
47% |
42% |
11% |
|
Black |
86% |
6% |
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
73% |
19% |
8% |
|
Republican |
31% |
57% |
12% |
|
Independent |
40% |
46% |
14% |
QUESTION: Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is doing as
lieutenant governor?
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No Answer |
|
Statewide |
62% |
22% |
16% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Eastern
Shore/So. MD |
51% |
34% |
15% |
|
Baltimore
City |
80% |
12% |
8% |
|
Baltimore
Suburbs |
66% |
16% |
18% |
|
Washington
Suburbs |
62% |
21% |
17% |
|
Western
MD |
47% |
39% |
14% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Male |
55% |
31% |
14% |
|
Female |
69% |
13% |
18% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
54% |
28% |
18% |
|
Black |
90% |
2% |
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
79% |
9% |
12% |
|
Republican |
36% |
41% |
23% |
|
Independent |
50% |
35% |
15% |
QUESTION: How would you characterize
the level of corruption in Maryland politics?
Is it higher in Maryland than in other states; lower in Maryland
than in other states; or is the level of corruption in Maryland about the
same as it is in other states?
|
|
Higher |
Lower |
About the Same |
No Answer |
|
Statewide |
|