Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc.

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

Part 2

 

State and National Issues

 

September 2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:     Carol Arscott      410-461-5744

 

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in Anne Arundel County politics.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from September 12th through September 15th, 2002.  A total of 823 registered voters in Maryland who indicated they were likely to vote in this year’s general election were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender and race.

 

 

 

 

 

 

           

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         409   (50%)

 

White        617   (75%)

 

Eastern Shore                85    (10%)

Female      414   (50%)

Black        197   (24%)

Baltimore City             84    (10%)

 

Other/Ref   9   

Baltimore Suburbs     269    (33%)

Party Registration

 

Washington Suburbs  293    (36%)

Democrat         469   (57%)

 

Western Maryland       92    (11%)

Republican       263   (32%)

 

 

Independent     91     (11%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings

 

Eastern Shore                      -           includes voters in these counties: Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

 

 

Baltimore City                -           includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

 

 

Baltimore Suburbs             -           includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

 

 

Washington Suburbs      -            includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s.

 

 

Western Maryland              -           includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

 

 

 

Analysis

 

 

Most Important National Issue

 

Foreign policy and security concerns are foremost in the minds of Maryland voters asked to name the most important issue facing the President and Congress.  The threat of – and the war on – terrorism is the overriding concern of 36% of those surveyed, with the impending invasion of Iraq placing second at 21%.  The economy and jobs place third, named by 15% of voters, followed by health care and prescription drugs at 8%, education at 5%, the budget deficit at 3%, crime and drugs at 2%, taxes at 1%, and the environment at 1%.  The remaining 8% gave no answer.

 

 

George W. Bush

 

The top two issues named by voters in our survey relate to national security, and they combine to total 57%.  This certainly contributes to President George W. Bush's enduring popularity in this most Democratic of states.  Fifty-four percent of Maryland voters have a favorable impression of Bush, while 29% have an unfavorable view, and 17% are neutral.  This is down from the dizzying heights of 66% favorable in January, but still pretty good for Maryland.

 

Sixty-three percent of Maryland voters surveyed said they approve of the job Bush is doing as President, while 28% disapprove.  The remaining 9% gave no answer.  An unprecedented 97% of Republicans approve of Bush's performance in office, along with 71% of men, 61% of independents, and 55% of women.  Even a plurality of Democrats (45% to 43%) approve of Bush's performance on the job.  These numbers are down slightly from July, when 69% said they approved of Bush, 19% disapproved, and 12% were undecided.

 

 

Invading Iraq

 

Assuming that the United Nations acts to enforce its 16 previous resolutions on Iraq, Bush would have wide support among Maryland voters to use military force to remove Saddam Hussein from power.  Sixty-five percent said that the United States would be justified in using force if the U.N. acts and Hussein fails to respond, while 25% said that military action would not be justified.  The remaining 10% gave no answer.  Men (76%), women (54%), Republicans (94%), and independents (64%) all give majority support for military action with international backing.  Democrats (49%) give a plurality.

 

Should the United Nations fail to enforce its own resolutions, just 45% endorse the idea of the United States acting alone, with 47% indicating that the country should not proceed unilaterally.  The remaining 8% gave no answer.  Only Republicans (76%) and men (54%) give majority support for military action without international backing.

 

 

Most Important Maryland Issue

 

The looming budget deficit (23%) and education (21%) are the two top issues facing our next Governor, according to poll respondents.  Taxes and traffic/transportation (10%) were tied for third place.  Health care and prescription drugs were next, named by 9% of respondents.  Crime and illegal drugs followed with 8%, then the economy with 6%, growth and development at 5%, and the environment at 1%.  The remaining 7% gave no answer.

 

Name Recognition

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

 

Favorable

 

 

Unfavorable

 

 

Neutral

 

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

 

George W. Bush

 

54%

 

29%

 

17%

 

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:  What is the most important issue facing the President and Congress? 

 

Threat of/war on terrorism                    36%

Invading Iraq                                        21%

Economy/jobs                                      15%

Health care/prescription drugs               8%

Education                                             5%

Budget deficit                                       3%

Crime/drugs                                          2%

Taxes                                                   1%

Environment                                         1%

No answer                                           8%

 

 

 

QUESTION:  Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?

 

 

 

 

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

 

No answer

 

Statewide

 

63%

 

28%

 

9%

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

71%

 

24%

 

5%

 

Women

 

55%

 

32%

 

13%

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

45%

 

43%

 

12%

 

Republican

 

97%

 

1%

 

2%

 

Independent

 

61%

 

28%

 

11%

 

 

QUESTION:  As you may know, President Bush addressed the United Nations on Thursday, and called on the UN to enforce the 16 resolutions it has passed on the subject of Iraq over the last ten years.  If the UN acts, and Iraq fails to respond, is the United States justified in using military force to remove Saddam Hussein from power, or not?

 

 

 

 

Yes,

Justified

No, not

Justified

 

No answer

 

Statewide

 

65%

 

25%

 

10%

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

76%

 

15%

 

9%

 

Women

 

54%

 

35%

 

11%

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

49%

 

39%

 

12%

 

Republican

 

94%

 

3%

 

3%

 

Independent

 

64%

 

18%

 

18%

 

 

QUESTION:  If the United Nations itself fails to act to enforce its own resolutions, should the United States act alone in Iraq, or not?

 

 

 

 

Yes,

Act alone

No, don’t

Act alone

 

No answer

 

Statewide

 

45%

 

47%

 

8%

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

54%

 

40%

 

6%

 

Women

 

36%

 

54%

 

10%

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

29%

 

64%

 

7%

 

Republican

 

76%

 

15%

 

9%

 

Independent

 

37%

 

55%

 

8%

 

 

QUESTION:  Thinking specifically about the State of Maryland, what is the most important issue facing our next Governor?

 

Budget deficit                                       23%

Education                                             21%

Taxes                                                   10%

Traffic/transportation                             10%

Health care/prescription drugs               9%

Crime/illegal drugs                                8%

Economy                                              6%

Growth/development                            5%

Environment                                         1%

No answer                                           7%