Gonzales RM&S
Research &
Communications, Inc.
Maryland Poll
Part 1 –
Governor’s Race
July 2002
Contact: Carol Arscott 410-461-5744
Methodology
Patrick E. Gonzales and
Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at
the beginning of 1999.
Gonzales is a 1981 graduate
of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in Anne Arundel County
politics. Arscott is a 1977 graduate of
the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of
the Howard County Republican Party.
This survey was conducted by
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from July 2nd
through July 7th, 2002. A
total of 829 registered voters in Maryland who indicated they were likely to
vote in this year’s general election were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of calls was made into each
jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.
The margin for error,
according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5
percentage points. This means that
there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within
this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any
demographic subgroup, such as gender, party registration or race.
|
Gender |
Race |
Region |
|
Male 412
(50%) |
White 625
(75%) |
Eastern Shore 84
(10%) |
|
Female 417
(50%) |
Black 195
(24%) |
Baltimore City 83 (10%) |
|
|
Other 9 |
Baltimore Suburbs 272
(33%) |
|
Party Registration |
|
Washington Suburbs 298
(36%) |
|
Democrat 470
(57%) |
|
Western Maryland 92
(11%) |
|
Republican 264 (32%) |
|
|
|
Independent 95
(11%) |
|
|
Regional Groupings
Eastern Shore - includes voters in these counties: Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.
Baltimore City - includes voters in the City of Baltimore.
Baltimore Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.
Washington Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s.
Western Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.
Analysis
It's
a horse race! Since our last survey in
January, Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Ehrlich has narrowed the gap
between himself and Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend to seven
points, down from 15 points at the beginning of the year. Townsend and her running mate, retired
Admiral Charles Larson lead with 48%, with Ehrlich and his pick for Number Two,
Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele, at 41%. The remaining 11% are undecided.
This marks the first time that Townsend has slipped below 50% and the
first time that Ehrlich has cracked 40%.
In
January, Ehrlich trailed Townsend by 15 points, 50% to 35% and she beat him in
every demographic subgroup except Republicans and whites. In June, Ehrlich has widened his lead with
white voters from 44%-41% to 50%-39%, and gone a long way to strengthen his
position with his Republican base, up ten points to 79%, this despite the
addition of a former Republican to the Democratic ticket. In addition, Ehrlich now leads Townsend with
Independent voters and among men. The
turnaround among Independents is the most dramatic: He now leads Townsend 49% to 30%, where he trailed 40% to 38% in
January. Among men, Ehrlich turned a
ten-point deficit (47% to 37%) into a five-point lead (46% to 41%). Black voters still give Townsend a huge
advantage, but even there she slipped two points (from 79% to 77%) as Ehrlich,
now paired with an African-American running mate, increased his share of the
black vote, from 8% to 13%.
Bright
spots were few for Townsend. She
marginally improved her performance with women (from 53% to 55%) and Democrats
(from 73% to 74%), and holds commanding leads in Baltimore City (77% to 16%)
and in the populous Washington suburbs (54% to 32%). Ehrlich leads in the other three regions – on the Eastern Shore
(44% to 41%), in the Baltimore suburbs (55% to 37%) and in Western Maryland
(52% to 38%).
The
D.C. suburbs hold one of November’s keys.
In 1994, when she came within 6,000 votes of being governor, Ellen Sauerbrey
barely managed 40% of the vote there.
Flipping one percent of the vote in this region would have sent her to
Annapolis.
For
Townsend, the tale is told in her name recognition figures. She is, if anything, even better known than
before, with a stunning 97% of general election voters saying they recognize
her name (up from 95% in January). But
her favorable name ID figures continue to slide, from 53% in September 2001, to
46% in January, to 41% today.
Twenty-nine percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of the
Lieutenant Governor, while 27% have a neutral opinion of her. The remaining 3% didn't recognize her
name. Her running mate, Charles Larson,
is unknown to 59% of Maryland voters.
Ehrlich's
overall name ID has improved from 69% to 75%.
Thirty-four percent of those surveyed have a favorable opinion of
Ehrlich, 10% have an unfavorable view, and 31% are neutral on the
Congressman. The remaining 25% didn't recognize
his name. Running mate Michael Steele
(43% recognize) is slightly better known than his Democratic counterpart.
It
is apparent that doubts continue to mount about Lieutenant Governor Kathleen
Kennedy Townsend. All her trend lines
are pointing in the wrong direction.
Her favorable name ID numbers have dropped precipitously and her
unfavorables have nearly doubled since we first included her name in a survey
in August 2000. She is now running 45
points below her overall name ID.
On
the other hand, Ehrlich's unfavorable rating has remained relatively steady for
nearly a year, just a third what hers is.
With 31% of the electorate holding a neutral opinion of Ehrlich, and 25%
who don't recognize his name, the GOP candidate still has an opportunity to
make a first impression on more than half the state's voters.
Townsend's
choice of Charles Larson as her running mate seems to have had no immediate
effect on the contest. Ehrlich has
improved his position among every demographic subgroup where Larson was
supposed to have special appeal – men, whites, and Republicans.
Meanwhile,
whether Ehrlich's slight improvement with blacks is a result of his selection
of Michael Steele or his own long-term efforts is debatable, but Steele
presence on the ticket certainly hasn't hurt.
Townsend,
though, still has strengths. Her party
holds a 2-to-1 voter registration advantage, and almost unlimited ability to
raise money, and the best help that money can buy. She also holds bigger leads in her core constituencies than
Ehrlich holds in his --
55%
to 36% with women, 77% to 13% with African-Americans, and 54% to 32% in the
vote-rich DC suburbs.
Republicans
know, from painful experience, that it is possible to lose a statewide election
in Maryland while capturing 21 counties.
Ehrlich needs to run up the score in the areas where he is strong in
order to pull even, and then hit that magic low-40’s threshold in the
Washington suburbs to pull it off.
Asked
to name the most important issue facing the next Governor, more than one-fifth
of Maryland voters named education (22%).
The state's budget shortfall, and crime and drugs tied for second place
with 13% each. Traffic and
transportation (11%) edged the economy (10%) for third place. Next were health care and prescription drugs
(9%), taxes (8%), growth and development (6%), and the environment (2%).
Respondents
were asked to select the best way to reduce the projected one billion dollar
budget deficit among five rotated choices.
Not surprisingly, a majority of Marylanders aren't enthusiastic about
taxing themselves. Thirty-one percent
said that spending should be cut in state programs, and 29% opted for
legalizing slot machines at racetracks.
Sixteen percent favored increasing the income tax rate for households
earning more than $100,000. Nine
percent chose increasing the sales tax rate, and a slim 6% favored expanding
the sales tax to include services.
Independents
(52%), Republicans (44%), whites (38%) and men (41%) were most likely to believe
that spending cuts are the best solution.
A plurality of Democrats (29%) and women (30%) opt for slots at
racetracks. Increasing the income tax
for those earning $100,000 or more was most popular with blacks (52%) and ran a
strong second with Democrats (26%).
Expanding the sales tax to include services was the least popular option
with every demographic subgroup.
Support
for the death penalty in Maryland remains fairly constant at 60%, with 34%
opposing it. The remaining 6% gave no
answer. Maryland voters gave nearly
identical answers in May of 2000, when 62% said they favored the death penalty
and 33% opposed it.
However,
a majority also supports the death penalty moratorium, which was favored by 51%
and opposed by 39%. The remaining 10%
gave no answer. Thirty-six percent of
those who said they favor the death penalty also favor the moratorium.
Sixty-one
percent of Maryland voters said they believed that the contacts initiated by a
number of legislators to several members of the Court of Appeals effected the
judges' decision to throw out the legislatively ratified redistricting map,
while 14% said the contacts had no affect.
The remaining 25% gave no answer.
Sentiment
was remarkably similar across each demographic subgroup. The widest range was between men (58%) and
women (64%). Whites (61%) and blacks
(62%) were in agreement, as were Democrats (61%), Republicans (60%), and
independents (63%).
QUESTION: If the November 2002 election for Governor and Lieutenant Governor were held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic ticket of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and Charles Larson, or the Republican ticket of Bob Ehrlich and Michael Steele?
|
|
Townsend/ Larson |
Ehrlich/ Steele |
Undecided |
|
Statewide
|
48% |
41% |
11% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
41% |
44% |
15% |
|
|
77% |
16% |
7% |
|
|
37% |
55% |
8% |
|
|
54% |
32% |
14% |
|
|
38% |
52% |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
41% |
46% |
13% |
|
|
55% |
36% |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
39% |
50% |
11% |
|
|
African-American |
77% |
13% |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
74% |
18% |
8% |
|
Republican |
9% |
79% |
12% |
|
Independent |
30% |
49% |
21% |
Name Recognition
I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Neutral |
Don’t Recognize |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
41% |
29% |
27% |
3% |
|
|
34% |
10% |
31% |
25% |
|
|
11% |
3% |
29% |
57% |
|
|
7% |
2% |
32% |
59% |
QUESTION: What is the most important issue facing our next Governor?
Education 22%
Budget deficit/budget shortfall 13%
Crime/drugs 13%
Traffic/transportation 11%
Economy 10%
Health care/prescription drugs 9%
Taxes 8%
Growth/development 6%
Environment 2%
No answer 6%
QUESTION: Most analysts believe that the State of Maryland
will face a budget shortfall of about one billion dollars in the next fiscal
year. Which of the following do you
believe is the best way to reduce the projected deficit: (ORDER ROTATED)
|
|
Cut Spend- ing |
LegalizeSlots |
Increase IncomeTax |
Increase Sales Tax |
Expand Sales Tax |
None/ No Answer |
|
Statewide
|
31% |
29% |
16% |
9% |
6% |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|