Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc

 

Maryland Poll

October 2000

 

 

Presidential & Senate Election

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:     Carol Arscott  410-461-5744
Methodology

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998 campaign for County Executive.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

Gonzales and Arscott together have over 30 years of professional experience in politics.  They have served as pollsters and consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s, including County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker, Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from October 24th through October 29th, 2000.  A total of 627 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed by telephone.  All stated they vote regularly in statewide general elections.  A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, or race.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ó            This survey is provided free of charge.  However, we ask that Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis be credited if the survey is cited in a news story or column.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

 

 

Gender

 

Male         311 (50%)

Female      316 (50%)

 

Party

 

Democrat          351 (56%)

Republican        211 (34%)

Independent       65  (10%)

 

Race

 

 White          481 (77%)

 Black          141 (22%)

     Other             5

 

 

Region

 

Eastern Shore/So. MD          77 (12%)

Baltimore City                       63 (10%)

Baltimore Suburbs              224 (36%)

Washington Suburbs           195 (31%)

Western MD                          68 (11%)

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings

 

 

Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland -           includes voters in these counties: Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, St. Mary’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

 

 

Baltimore City                                        -           includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

 

 

Baltimore Suburbs                                  -           includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

 

 

Washington Suburbs                              -           includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, and Prince George’s.

 

 

Western Maryland                                  -           includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

 

 

General Summary & Analysis

 

 

Presidential Match-up

 

As the presidential campaigns move toward the feverish final few days, the Free State is receiving scant attention.  Maryland is the anti-battleground, well behind Democratic Party lines.

 

Vice President Al Gore holds a 14-point lead, besting Texas Governor George W. Bush 52% to 38%, a gap that has narrowed by just one point since our last survey in late August, when Gore led Bush 51% to 36%.  Green Party candidate Ralph Nader continues to hold 4% of the Maryland vote, while the Reform Party’s Pat Buchanan share has slipped from 2% to 1% since the summer, despite his campaign’s efforts on the Eastern Shore.  Just 5% are undecided.

 

Gore continues to hold a commanding advantage among African-Americans (83% to 5%), in Baltimore City (78% to 16%), among Democrats (76% to 15%), in the Washington suburbs (63% to 25%), and among women (61% to 30%). 

 

Bush maintains a large lead among the state’s outnumbered Republicans (75% to 18%). Bush holds on to a narrow edge with whites (48% to 42%), men (46% to 43%), and beats Gore in Western Maryland (56% to 37%) and on the Eastern Shore (48% to 43%).  Since August, Bush has picked up the lead in the Baltimore suburbs (46% to 43%), where Gore once led 45% to 41%.  And Bush now splits independents with Gore at 37% each (Gore led among independents 41% to 30% in August).  Nader picks up 18% of the independent vote.

 

 

Most Important Issue

 

Opinion on what constitutes the campaign’s most important issue has hardened, which goes a long way in explaining why the top line numbers in Maryland have changed so little in the past seven weeks.  In response to an open-ended question, 27% said that saving Social Security was the Number One issue (25% in August), retaining the top spot in the survey, and the economy and continuing our current prosperity is still Number Two, unchanged at 18%.

 

The third and fourth most important issues have switched positions, but the percentage of voters citing each has shifted only slightly.  Health care, Medicare, and prescription drugs is now third, with 16%.  Those issue held fourth place in our August survey, named by 15% of respondents.  Improving public education now occupies fourth position, with 12%.  Education placed third in August, cited by 16% of those surveyed.

Rounding out the list are tax cuts (9%), character (9%), national defense and the Mideast crisis (3%), and campaign finance reform (1%, down from 4% in our August survey).

 

 

Presidential Debates

 

More than three-quarters of Maryland voters surveyed said they had watched or listened to at least one of the presidential debates this fall, but only 12% said those debates had helped them make up their mind.  A majority, 59%, said the debates confirmed the decision they had already made, while 29% said the debates did not help them make their electoral decision. 

 

Republicans were the most civic-minded voters, with an impressive 87% tuning in to at least one debate, while independents were least likely to watch (68%).  Bush voters (63%) were slightly more likely than Gore votes (57%) to have had an earlier-held opinion confirmed by the debates.

 

 

Freedom or Security?

 

George W. Bush repeatedly refers to “a difference in philosophy” when outlining what distinguishes his message from that of Al Gore.  Bush “trusts the people, not the government” to make major decisions for voters, a philosophy borne out in his proposals on Social Security privatization, prescription drugs, and tax cuts.  Gore, on the other hand, tells the voters that he will “fight” for them on all fronts, battling HMOs, Big Oil,  and drug companies in his quest to protect “the people, not the powerful.” 

 

The boiled-down to their essence, the messages being sent by the candidates are “I trust you to look out for yourself” versus “I’ll take care of you.”  This proves to be the very heart of the gender gap:  When asked what they value more, freedom or security, men opt for freedom by a two-to-one margin (50% to 27%), but a plurality of women choose security (37% to 34%). 

 

Other differences emerge among other demographic subgroups, but only among political independents (51% to 25%) is the preference for freedom over security as dramatic as with men, and so different than the other breakdowns in the same category.

 

White voters favor freedom over security by a margin of 43% to 29%, while black voters are nearly evenly split in their sentiment (40% to 41%).  Republicans (45% to 34%) give freedom an 11-point edge over security, while Democrats are somewhat more equivocal (39% to 32%).  Overall, 42% of Maryland voters said the valued freedom more, 32% favored security, and nearly a fifth (19%) refused to choose, saying the valued both (this option was not read to respondents).  The remaining 7% offered no answer.

 

 

 

Senatorial Match-up

 

The Maryland Senate race remains unexciting, with incumbent Democrat Paul Sarbanes holding an insurmountable 63% to 30% lead over Republican challenger Paul Rappaport.  Rappaport is ahead with Republicans, but nowhere else, a precarious position when members of your party are outnumbered two-to-one.

 

 

Analysis

 

In 1996, Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole by 16 points (54% to 38%), with Ross Perot taking 7%.  Maryland Republicans, still reeling from the drubbing they took in the 1998 mid-term elections, look like they are about to absorb another body blow on November 7.  A national victory for George W. Bush would make a statewide loss a lot less dispiriting, giving state GOP leaders something to hang onto as they prepare for Congressional and legislative redistricting next year, and the gubernatorial election cycle in 2002.  The bottom line is that the minority party will have to grab onto something other than an electoral triumph in 2000 to pick themselves up off the mat.  Rebuilding that 1988 winning coalition appears to be as elusive as ever.

 

 

 

 

Name Recognition

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

 

 

Favorable

 

 

Unfavorable

 

 

Neutral

 

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

 

Al Gore

 

54%

 

34%

 

12%

 

-

 

George W. Bush

 

41%

 

40%

 

19%

 

-

 

Ralph Nader

 

28%

 

31%

 

32%

 

9%

 

Pat Buchanan

 

7%

 

62%

 

25%

 

6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most Important Issue

 

QUESTION:    In your opinion, what is the most important issue in the upcoming Presidential election? 

 

          Saving Social Security                                     27%    

          The economy/continuing prosperity                18%    

          Health care//Medicare/prescription drugs     16%

          Improving public education                             12%    

          Tax cuts                                                            9%                  

          Character of candidate/values/morals            9%                  

          National defense/MidEast crisis                     3%      

          Campaign Finance reform                               1%

          No answer                                                        5%

 

 

 

Presidential Match-up

 

 

 

QUESTION:    If the November general election were held today, for whom would you vote for president:  Al Gore, the Democrat, George W. Bush, the Republican, Patrick Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate, or Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate?

 

 

 

 

Gore

 

Bush

 

Nader

 

Buchanan

 

Undecided

 

Statewide

 

52%

 

38%

 

4%

 

1%

 

5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern MD

 

42%

 

48%

 

3%

 

3%

 

4%

 

Baltimore City

 

78%

 

16%

 

2%

 

0%

 

5%

 

Baltimore Suburbs

 

43%

 

46%

 

4%

 

0%

 

7%

Washington Suburbs

 

63%

 

25%

 

6%

 

2%

 

4%

 

Western MD

 

37%

 

56%

 

3%

 

1%

 

3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

42%

 

48%

 

5%

 

1%

 

4%

 

African-American

 

85%

 

5%

 

0%

 

0%

 

10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

43%

 

46%

 

6%

 

1%

 

4%

 

Women

 

61%

 

30%

 

2%

 

1%

 

6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

76%

 

15%

 

3%

 

0%

 

6%

 

Republican

 

18%

 

75%

 

1%

 

2%

 

4%

 

Independent

 

37%

 

37%

 

18%

 

2%

 

6%

 

QUESTION:    Did you watch or listen to any of the presidential debates?

 

 

 

 

Yes

 

No

 

Statewide

 

78%

 

22%