Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc

Maryland Poll

August 2000

2002 Gubernatorial Election

Part II

Contact: Carol Arscott 410-461-5744
Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999.

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998 campaign for County Executive. Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party.

Gonzales and Arscott together have over 30 years of professional experience in politics. They have served as pollsters and consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s, including County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker, Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from August 23^rd through August 28^th, 2000. A total of 649 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in statewide general elections. A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, or race.

This survey also includes an over sampling of 404 likely Democratic primary voters for the 2002 gubernatorial election. The margin for error is ± 5% for the Democratic primary sub-sample. The respondents comprising this over sampling were only asked the questions pertaining to the gubernatorial primary.

Ó This survey is provided free of charge. However, we ask that Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis be credited if the survey is cited in a news story or column.

General Summary & Analysis

Glendening Job Approval

Governor Parris Glendening continues to post impressive job approval numbers as he nears the midpoint of his second term. Fifty-seven percent of voters statewide said they approved of Glendening’s performance as governor, 29% disapproved, and the remaining 14% gave no answer. This is a slight improvement over his numbers in our January survey, when 56% said they approved of the job Glendening was doing as governor, 34% disapproved, and 10% offered no answer.

Glendening is riding high with African-Americans (80% approve), Democrats (78%), voters in Baltimore City (79%) and in the Washington suburbs (69%), and women (63%). The Governor has lost ground among Republicans, dropping from a 31% approval rating to 21%, but has gained ground with independents, moving from 40% approval to 49% since January. His approval rating falls below 50% with the aforementioned Republicans (21%) and independents (49%), and among voters on the Eastern Shore and in Southern Maryland (46%), in the Baltimore suburbs (49%), and in Western Maryland (38%).

2002 General Election

Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is the early favorite in the 2002 race for Governor, getting 52% of the vote in a hypothetical match-up against the man everyone agrees would be the GOP’s strongest candidate, 2^nd District Congressman Bob Ehrlich. Ehrlich earns 29% of the vote, with the remaining 19% undecided.

Townsend leads Ehrlich in every demographic subgroup in the survey except Republicans, where Ehrlich bests Townsend 65% to 19%. Townsend posts majorities among African-Americans (77%), Democrats (61%), and women (61%), but is held to pluralities among whites (44% to 37%), men (42% to 35%), and independents (47% to 22%).

Townsend’s name is recognized by 91% of voters surveyed, while 9% did not recognize the Lieutenant Governor’s name. Fifty-four percent view her favorably, 15% see her unfavorably, and 22% have a neutral view of Townsend. Ehrlich’s name, on the other hand, is recognized by only 54% of survey respondents. Twenty-one percent have a favorable opinion of Ehrlich, 7% have an unfavorable opinion, and 26% are neutral on Ehrlich. The remaining 46% did not recognize his name.

2002 Democratic Primary

Name Recognition

The route to the Democratic nomination for Governor takes a candidate through the Democratic primary, and the Lieutenant Governor is well-positioned two years out. Townsend is viewed favorably by 67% of Democratic primary voters survey, unfavorably by just 7%, and neutrally by 20%. The remaining 6% did not recognize her name.

Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan’s name is recognized by 49% of Democratic primary votes, 23% favorably 2% unfavorably, and 24% neutrally. The remaining 51% did not recognize Duncan.

Baltimore County Executive Dutch Ruppersberger is recognized by 51% of Maryland’s Democratic primary electorate. Nineteen percent have a favorable opinion of Ruppersberger, 5% have an unfavorable view, and 27% see him neutrally. The remaining 49% did not recognize Ruppersberger’s name.

Prince George’s County Executive is the least well-known of the possible contenders for the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nomination. Curry’s name is recognized by 46% of primary voters, 17% favorably, 1% unfavorably, and 28% neutrally. The remaining 54% did not recognize Curry’s name.

As the campaigns are just beginning to ramp up, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend’s favorable name ID number is 18 points higher than the total name recognition number of her closest rival, a big head start.

Democratic Primary Match-ups

When the Lieutenant Governor is matched against the three suburban county executives, Townsend swamps the field with a near-majority 49% of the vote in a four-way race. Duncan is a distant second with 12%, Ruppersberger follows with 10%, and Curry trails with 8%. The remaining 21% are undecided.

Townsend wins a strong majority of African-American (61%) and female (58%) voters, but must be content with pluralities among whites (43%) and men (40%).

Townsend leads among Washington area primary voters with 35%, but Duncan (28%) and Curry (19%) combine to take 47% of the Beltway crowd. Ruppersberger gets 20% of the vote in the Baltimore metropolitan region, compared to 58% for Townsend, a fellow Baltimore Countian. The simple fact that the Executives are barely known outside their home counties is illustrated by the vote out of the rest of the state: Townsend gets 51%, with Duncan picking up 3%, Ruppersberger garnering 4%, and Curry earning just 1%. However, 41% of voters outside the metropolitan areas are undecided in the primary contest.

Candidate Profile Match-up

Fortunes changes, though, when brief biographical sketches of each of the four Democratic candidates (including their age, race, sex, office held, and years in office) are read to voters, minus the candidates’ names. The candidate profiles were assigned letter designations from A to D in alphabetical order of the candidate’s name. After all four profiles were read to survey respondents, they were then asked which candidate would get their vote.

Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (Candidate D) still leads the field, but with just 37% of the vote. Closing fast is Wayne Curry (Candidate A) with 26%, who ran fourth in the traditional match-up. Doug Duncan (Candidate B) got 13%, and Dutch Ruppersberger (Candidate C) chalked up 12%. The remaining 12% were undecided. Interestingly, 21% were undecided when the candidate’s names were used.

The biggest difference between the two match-ups was in the black vote, which Townsend had won handily. Curry pulls 67% of African-Americans to Townsend’s 22% when candidate profiles are read, while his share of the white vote (5%) is virtually unchanged.

Duncan’s and Curry’s share of the Washington area vote goes from a combined 47% to 64% when candidate profiles reveal job descriptions. Curry makes the biggest gain among Baltimore region voters in the candidate profile match-up, mostly at Townsend’s expense. Townsend’s share of the primary vote from the Baltimore region drops from 58% to 41%, while Curry’s rises from 3% to 28%. Ruppersberger’s share of the vote from the Baltimore region goes from 20% to 25%. Townsend’s level of support also drops with both men and women, from 40% to 27%, and from 58% to 46%, respectively.

The potential power of a strong African-American candidate in the Democratic primary cannot be overlooked. A man fitting the description of Wayne Curry completely changes the dynamics of the contest, adding a little spice to the mix, so to speak. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is clearly the early leader in the 2002 Democratic primary for governor, but much of her support is soft, based on the voters’ recognition of her famous name. Depending on which of these suburban county executives ultimately decides to make this race, it could turn out to be far more interesting than many now image.

Glendening Job Approval

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Parris Glendening is doing as governor?

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

Statewide

57%

29%

14%

Eastern Shore/ Southern MD

46%

35%

19%

Baltimore City

79%

17%

Baltimore Suburbs

49%

37%

14%

Washington Suburbs

69%

21%

10%

Western MD

38%

45%

17%

White

50%

36%

14%

African-American

80%

14%

Men

51%

34%

15%

Women

63%

24%

13%

Democrat

78%

14%

Republican

21%

56%

23%

Independent

49%

30%

21%

Name Recognition

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

Favorable

Unfavorable

Neutral

Don’t Recognize

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend

54%

15%

22%

Bob Ehrlich

21%

26%

46%

QUESTION: If the 2002 general election for governor were held today for whom would you vote if the candidates were Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the Democrat and Bob Ehrlich, the Republican?

Townsend

Ehrlich

Undecided