Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc.

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

Part 1

 

Governor’s  Race

Slots at Tracks

Comptroller’s  Race – Democratic Primary

 

August 2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:     Carol Arscott      410-461-5744

 

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in Anne Arundel County politics.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from August 10th through August 18th, 2002.  A total of 801 registered voters in Maryland who indicated they were likely to vote in this year’s general election were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender and race.

 

 This survey also includes an over-sampling of 637 Democratic primary voters who indicated they are likely to vote in the September 10th Democratic primary election.  A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect Democratic primary voting patterns.  Margin of error for this Democratic primary sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

 

 

 

 

           

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         397   (50%)

 

White        599   (75%)

 

Eastern Shore                83    (10%)

Female      404   (50%)

Black        192   (24%)

Baltimore City             81    (10%)

 

Other/Ref   10 

Baltimore Suburbs     261    (33%)

Party Registration

 

Washington Suburbs  285    (36%)

Democrat         451   (56%)

 

Western Maryland       91    (11%)

Republican       257   (32%)

 

 

Independent     93     (12%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings

 

Eastern Shore                      -           includes voters in these counties: Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

 

 

Baltimore City                -           includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

 

 

Baltimore Suburbs             -           includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

 

 

Washington Suburbs      -            includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s.

 

 

Western Maryland              -           includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

 

 

 

 

Democratic Primary Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

Gender

Region

 

Male         290   (46%)

 

Eastern Shore                40     (6%)

Female      347   (54%)

Baltimore City           102    (16%)

 

Baltimore Suburbs     215    (34%)

Race

Washington Suburbs  230    (36%)

White               426   (67%)

Western Maryland       50     (8%)

Black               205   (32%)

 

Other/Ref            6   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings

 

Eastern Shore                      -           includes voters in these counties: Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

 

 

Baltimore City                -           includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

 

 

Baltimore Suburbs             -           includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

 

 

Washington Suburbs      -            includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s.

 

 

Western Maryland              -           includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

 

 

 

 

Analysis

 

Gubernatorial Election

 

Maryland's race for governor continues to get tighter.  Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and Charles Larson hold a diminishing lead over Bob Ehrlich and Michael Steele, 47% to 43%, with 10% undecided, a four-point gap.  Five weeks ago, Townsend led Ehrlich by seven points, 48% to 41%, with 11% undecided.

 

Ehrlich has improved his position against Townsend in Baltimore City, going from 16% to 19% of the vote there, while Townsend dropped from 77% to 73%.  Ehrlich also stretched his lead in the Baltimore suburbs, from 55% to 37% in July to 58% to 33% in August.  He improved slightly in Western Maryland widening his lead to 53% to 36%.  Ehrlich gets 49% of men (up from 46%), and 52% of whites (up from 50%).  His share of the Democratic vote is up three points to 21%, and he's won over 81% of his fellow Republicans, up from 79% in right after the filing deadline in July.

 

Townsend continues to perform beyond expectations on the Eastern Shore, where Ehrlich now holds just a one point edge, 43% to 42%. And Townsend has picked up another two points in the DC suburbs, getting 56% to Ehrlich's 33%.  Townsend still leads with women, 54% to 37%, but Ehrlich has tightened the contest there, picking up one point while Townsend lost another.  Townsend continues to dominate among black voters, 75% to 15%, but Ehrlich has improved with African-Americans as well – that portion of the contest stood at 77% to 13% in July.  Townsend slipped from 74% to 72% among Democrats, but does better with independents in this survey.  She picked up three points, while Ehrlich lost two, 33% to 47%.

 

Bob Ehrlich's overall name ID jumped from 75% to 87% in the last five weeks, with his positives and negatives each up four points, 38% to 14%, with another 35% in neutral territory.  Just 13% failed to recognize Ehrlich's name.

 

Townsend's overall name ID is up to 98% now, up from 97% in July, but her unfavorables are up to 31% (from 29%).  Her favorable figure is down one point, to 40%, but for Townsend the ratio is positives to negatives is getting uncomfortably close.

 

Both gubernatorial running mates have higher name recognition now than in July.  Republican Michael Steele's name is recognized favorably by 18%, unfavorably by 5%, and neutrally by 28%, while 49% did not recognize his name.  Newly minted Democrat Charles Larson is recognized favorably by 13%, unfavorably by 8%, and neutrally by 31%.  The remaining 48% didn't recognize Larson's name.

Parris Glendening

 

Townsend's boss, Parris Glendening, is not helping her candidacy.  Glendening's unfavorables exceed his favorables, 37% to 33%, with 27% neutral on the governor.  The remaining 3% didn't recognize his name.  Glendening's numbers weren't great in January, but at least his favorables topped his unfavorables at 43% to 34%. 

 

Glendening's job approval figures are not much better – 45% said they approved of Glendening's performance in office, while 40% said they disapproved.  The remaining 15% gave no answer.  African-Americans (70%), Democrats (63%), and women (50%) give Glendening positive marks, while men (49%), whites (48%), Republicans (68%), and independents (46%) hold a negative opinion of the governor's performance in office.  The last time we measured the governor's job performance was in January, when 50% approved and 36% disapproved.

 

 

Slots at Racetracks

 

Public opinion has been softening on the issue of slots at racetracks for several years; now, it has turned.  Forty-six percent of voters surveyed said they favor slot machines at Maryland racetracks, while 37% said they oppose slots.  The remaining 17% were not sure.  A plurality of voters favor slots in every demographic subgroup in the survey.

 

When asked whether they would favor or oppose slots at racetracks if the revenue raised was dedicated to public education, the plurality became a majority – 61% favor slots under these circumstances, while 32% oppose them.  Seven percent said they weren't sure.  With the education caveat, 19% of those who said they opposed slots at racetracks switched sides, and 63% of those who weren't sure took a position in favor.

 

When asked whether they believe that Maryland racetracks need slot machines to remain profitable and be competitive with racetracks in surrounding states, 41% of voters said yes, while 39% said no.  The remaining 20% were not sure.  Sixteen percent of those who favor slots weren't persuaded that the industry needs them to remain profitable.

 

 

Comptroller's Race – Democratic Primary

 

Incumbent comptroller, former governor, and erstwhile mayor William Donald Schaefer leads the three-way Democratic primary for comptroller with 48% of the vote.  Secretary of State John Willis gets 23%, and Lih Young trails with 2%.  The remaining 27% of Democrats are undecided.

 

Schaefer's superior name ID clearly helps him tremendously.  While just 2% of voters statewide failed to recognize Schaefer's name, 62% don't know Willis, and 81% had never heard of Young.  Schaefer's negatives stand at 22%, while Willis' are negligible at 3%.

 

Schaefer leads in all demographic subgroups, but is over 50% only in Baltimore City (53%), and Baltimore suburbs (58%), and with whites (50%).

 

Four years ago, Schaefer barely beat back the challenge by City Comptroller Joan Pratt in Baltimore, and Lih Young got 25% against him in her native Montgomery County.  This year, a change in the law will keep a candidate's home county off the ballot, so Young will probably not benefit from her residency in Maryland's most populous jurisdiction this time around.  Schaefer is an enduring presence, but he is not universally loved, as was his predecessor.  Willis could make this more interesting than it otherwise would be.

 

 

 

QUESTION:  If the November 2002 election for Governor and Lieutenant Governor were held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic ticket of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and Charles Larson, or the Republican ticket of Bob Ehrlich and Michael Steele?

 

 

 

Townsend/

Larson

Ehrlich/

Steele

 

Undecided

 

Statewide

 

47%

 

43%

 

10%

 

 

 

 

 

Eastern Shore

 

42%

 

43%

 

15%

 

Baltimore City

 

73%

 

19%

 

8%

Baltimore Suburbs

 

33%

 

58%

 

9%

Washington Suburbs

 

56%

 

33%

 

11%

Western Maryland

 

36%

 

53%

 

11%

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

40%

 

49%

 

11%

 

Women

 

54%

 

37%

 

9%

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

38%

 

52%

 

10%

African-American

 

75%

 

15%

 

10%

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

72%

 

21%

 

7%

 

Republican

 

8%

 

81%

 

11%

 

Independent

 

33%

 

47%

 

20%

Name Recognition

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

 

Favorable

 

 

Unfavorable

 

 

Neutral

 

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend

 

40%

 

31%

 

27%

 

2%

 

Bob Ehrlich

 

38%

 

14%

 

35%

 

13%

 

Michael Steele

 

18%

 

5%

 

28%

 

49%

 

Charles Larson

 

13%

 

8%

 

31%

 

48%

 

 

 

 

Favorable

 

 

Unfavorable

 

 

Neutral

 

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

 

Parris Glendening

 

33%

 

37%

 

27%

 

3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:  Do you approve or disapprove of the job Parris Glendening is doing as Governor?