Washington D.C. Poll

 

June 20th, 2000

 

 

 

 

        Part I       - Special Election, Proposed Charter Amendment III

 

        Part II     - Most Important Issue; Williams Job Approval, Re-elect; Barry Return

 

        Part III    - License Tag Slogan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:   Carol Arscott  410-461-5744

Methodology

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999.

 

Since 1984 Gonzales and Arscott have conducted and analyzed public opinion polls in over a thousand elections at the presidential, state, congressional, and local levels.

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore, graduating magna cum laude with a degree in political science, while Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. 

 

Gonzales and Arscott have served as pollsters and consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland including House Speaker Casper Taylor; Senate Finance Chair Tom Bromwell; Senate Minority Leader Marty Madden; House Minority Leader Bob Kittleman;    County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker, Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall.  Additionally, they polled for newly elected Montgomery First District Councilman Howie Denis in his recent campaign.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from June 15th through 18th, 2000.  A total of 636 registered voters in Washington D.C. were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of calls was made to reflect voter registration and turnout patterns in the City’s eight Council Wards.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.

 

This survey also includes an over sampling of 407 June 27th Special Election voters who stated they would “definitely” or “likely” vote in the June 27th Charter Amendment election.  The margin for error among this group is ± 5 percent.  The respondents comprising this over sampling were asked only the question pertaining to their preference on Charter Amendment III.

 

 

 

               

Ó            This survey’s results are provided free of charge.  However, please credit Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis if the survey is cited in a news story or column.

Washington D.C. Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

 

Age

 

18 to 34           99        (16%)

Race

 

White               225      (35%)

 

35 to 54           262      (41%)

African-

American          392      (62%)

 

55 and older     272      (43%)

Other/

Refused               19     (3%)

 

Refused               3      

 

 

 

 

Gender

 

 

Men                 295      (46%)

Party Registration

 

 

Democrat         492      (77%)

 

Women            341      (54%)

 

Republican       50       (8%)

 

 

 

Other               94       (15%)

 

 

Council Ward

 

Ward 1                        76            (12%)

 

Ward 2                        77            (12%)

 

Ward 3                        111            (17%) 

 

Ward 4                        99            (16%)

 

Ward 5                        81            (13%)

 

Ward 6                        78            (12%)

 

Ward 7                        75            (12%)

 

Ward 8                        39       (6%)

Analysis

 

 

 

Part I – Special Election, School Governance Charter Amendment Act of 2000

 

The upcoming election on the School Governance Charter Amendment Act of 2000, set for June 27th, is looking like a nail-biter, with the outcome hinging on voter turnout. 

District wide, 43% of voters said they favor the charter amendment while 41% oppose it, and 16% remain undecided.

 

The changes to the composition of the school board may seem esoteric to an outside observer, but they are proving to be polarizing for District of Columbia voters.  Whites (62%) favor the amendment at near twice the rate as African Americans (33%).  Registered Democrats are split right down the middle – 42% for, and 42% against – while Republicans favor the amendment 80% to 10%.  Those voters in the District who decline to affiliate with either of the two major national parties oppose the amendment, 51% to 30% 

 

There is a stark contrast in attitudes toward the proposed Charter Amendment by age.  Younger voters, those aged 18 to 34, favor the amendment in overwhelming numbers (81%), while voters aged 55 and older oppose the amendment 44% to 40%, and voters aged 35 to 54 are split, 41% to 42%.  Older voters show up at the polls in much greater numbers than do younger ones. 

 

Men tend to oppose the amendment (47% to 40%) while a plurality of women supports it (45% to 36%).   

 

Most importantly, and perhaps a portent of what will come to pass, voters who indicated in our screener that they will “definitely” go to the polls on the 27th oppose the amendment 49% to 35%, while voters who identified themselves as “likely” to vote in the special election said they favor the changes by a margin of 60% to 24%. 

 

Advocates of the proposed amendment, who enjoy high-profile institutional support for the changes to the charter, have a chance to work their will, but will face determined opponents who appear to be more highly motivated to turn out at the polls on June 27th. 

 

Charter Amendment supporters will need to focus their energy sharply on the 16% of voters who are undecided.  Undecided voters in ballot initiatives tend at the end to stick with the status quo and vote against – generally, by huge margins -- unless the reasons to vote for change are compelling.  Compounding the difficulties faced by amendment advocates will be recent revelations surrounding improper fundraising and use of city resources for campaign activities.  D.C. Agenda, a group intending to influence support for Charter Amendment

 

III, had to return $80,000 in contributions because it never registered with the Office of Campaign Finances.  And Mayor Anthony Williams was cited Friday by the Board of Ethics for violating District personnel regulations in using public employees and equipment to campaign for the school board charter amendment.     

 

 

 

Part II – Most Important Issue; Williams Job Approval, Re-elect; Barry Return

 

Most Important Issue

 

Polling more like a suburban jurisdiction than an urban center, nearly a third (32%) of District of Columbia residents named education as the most important issue facing Washington today.  Crime and drugs is viewed as the second most important issue, cited by 19%.  In a Gonzales RM&S poll taken in Baltimore City last month, concern about crime and drugs swamped every other issue, named by 61% as the most important issue in Maryland’s biggest city.  Education was the top concern of just 12% of Baltimore City voters.

 

To at least some extent, voter perception of an area’s most important issue will reflect the matters being addressed by elected officials and the media at the time a survey is taken.  In that regard, reducing Baltimore’s murder rate and shutting down its notorious drugs corners are the top priorities of its new mayor, Martin O’Malley.  Similarly, education is very much on the minds of District voters these days, with the referendum on the constitution of the school board looming large, and the recent resignation of Superintendent Arlene Ackerman.  But the underlying concern of the voters about these issues is real.

 

The third most important issue to District voters is one that would never arise in Baltimore, or anywhere else in America, for that matter -- home rule or, in its recent formulation, “taxation without representation” – cited by 14% of city voters.  Combined with another 4% who cited statehood specifically, nearly one-fifth of Washington, DC voters named a problem unique to their city as its most important issue.

 

Single-digit concerns were urban revitalization (7%), taxes (5%), traffic and transportation issues (3%), city services (3%), jobs and the economy (2%), low-income housing (2%), and health care (1%).  The remaining 8% offered no answer.

 

 

Name Recognition

 

District of Columbia Mayor Anthony “Tony” Williams is enjoying broad support among city voters a year and a half into his first term in office.  Williams is viewed favorably by 71%, unfavorably by just 8%, and neutrally by 20%, an enviable ratio of positive to negative opinion of nearly 9-to-1.  The remaining 1% did not recognize Williams’ name.

 

Council member-at-large and former mayoral candidate Carol Schwartz remains an admired and respected public figure after years of service to the city.  Schwartz is viewed favorably by 57%, unfavorably by only 7%, and neutrally by 29%.  The remaining 7%

did not recognize her name.  In a jurisdiction where members of her Republican Party out outnumbered by Democrats and others by more than 10-to-1, these are impressive numbers.

 

Former mayor and possible council candidate Marion Barry remains a divisive figure even as a private citizen, viewed favorably by 41% of District voters, unfavorably by 44%, and neutrally by 15%.  Every voter surveyed recognized Barry’s name.

 

Council member-at-large and possible Barry target, Harold Brazil, is recognized favorably by 40% of city voters surveyed, but his unfavorable rating is less than half that of Barry, at 18%.  Thirty-seven percent of voters are neutral about Brazil, while the remaining 5% did not recognize his name.

 

 

Williams Job Approval and Re-elect Numbers

 

Seventy-seven percent of voters District-wide said they approve of the job Anthony Williams is doing as mayor, while 8% disapprove.  The remaining 15% had no opinion.  Williams’ lowest job approval rating is with Republicans, though still a stratospheric 72%.

 

If the 2002 election for mayor were held today, a whopping 66% of District voters said they would vote to re-elect Williams, while 25% said they would consider another candidate, and just 9% said they would vote to replace him.  Williams’ numbers with African-Americans (68% re-elect) are somewhat stronger than with whites (62%).  And even those demographic subgroups with comparatively tepid enthusiasm – voters in other political parties (55%) and Republicans (59%) – still register re-elect figures well over the magical 50% number.

 

 

Marion Barry’s Return

 

Is a comeback in Marion Barry’s future?  When asked whether they thought the former mayor should run for elective office in D.C. again, 56% said they would prefer than he didn’t, 38% thought that he should, and 6% expressed no opinion.

 

Barry’s possible re-entry into City politics is scorned by Republicans (86%), whites

 

(79%), men (63%), and voters aged 18 to 34 (62%).  But no demographic subgroup in the survey gave a Barry candidacy majority support (African-Americans came closest, with 49%).  Even a majority of Democrats (51% to 44%) said that Barry should not run again.  Perhaps most important, just 38% voters aged 55 and older – representing 43% of the electorate -- said that Barry should take the plunge.

 

 

Part III -- License Tag Sloganeering

 

One hundred percent of the D.C. City Council is co-sponsoring the resolution asking Mayor Williams to authorize changing the slogan on the city’s auto license tags from the banal and cheerful “Celebrate and Discover” to the in-your-face and political “Taxation Without Representation.”  The elected officials are a little bit ahead of the voters on this issue, but not by much.  Seventy-eight percent of District voters surveyed approve of the change, while 15% oppose it.  The remaining 7% offered no opinion.  Most enthusiastic were Republicans (90%), whites (86%), and voters aged 35 to 54 (85%). 

 

 

Part I

 

Proposed Charter Amendment III

“The School Governance Charter Amendment Act of 2000”

 

*****     407 June 27th Special Election Voters     *****

 

SCREENER:  As you may know, there will be a special election on June 27th on  proposed Charter Amendment III, titled “The School Governance Charter Amendment Act of 2000.”  How likely is it that you will vote in the upcoming special election?

            Definitely will vote              (INCLUDED IN SAMPLE)

            Likely will vote       (INCLUDED IN SAMPLE)

            Might vote              (NOT INCLUDED)

            Won’t vote             (NOT INCLUDED)

 

 

 

QUESTION:                On the June 27th Special Election ballot is proposed Charter Amendment III, titled “The School Governance Charter Amendment Act of 2000.”  The Charter Amendment, if passed, would:

 

·        Reduce the number of Members of the Board of Education from 11 to 9,

·        Combine 8 election wards to create 4 new school election districts,

·        Allow voters to elect 4 Members from new school election districts,

·        Allow voters to elect 1 Member at-large as Board President, and

·        Allow the Mayor to appoint 4 Members to be confirmed by the City Council.

 

The Charter Amendment will allow the Board to hire, evaluate and remove the Superintendent, establish personnel policies for hiring principals, and approve an annual budget.  This Amendment allows the City Council to create a state education agency, and directs that the provision for the make-up of the new Board and school election districts will end in 4 years.  Thereafter, the selection and size of the Board shall be made according to local law.

 

If you were voting today, would you vote “For” Charter Amendment III, or “Against” Charter Amendment III?

 

FOR                                    43%

AGAINST                        41%

UNDECIDED            16%           


Special Election Cross-Tabs

 

 

 

 

FOR

 

AGAINST

 

UNDECIDED

 

Citywide

 

43%

 

41%

 

16%

 

 

18 to 34

 

 

81%

 

 

12%

 

 

7%

 

35 to 54

 

41%

 

42%

 

17%

 

55 and older

 

40%

 

44%

 

16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

40%

 

47%

 

13%

 

Women

 

45%

 

36%

 

19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

62%

 

23%

 

15%

 

African-American

 

33%

 

50%

 

17%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

42%

 

42%

 

16%

 

Republican

 

80%

 

10%

 

10%

 

Other

 

30%

 

51%

 

19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

“Definite” Voters

 

35%

 

49%

 

16%

 

“Likely” Voters

 

60%

 

24%

 

16%

 

Part II

 

 

QUESTION:                What’s the most important issue facing Washington D.C. today?

 

                                    Education                                                            32%

                                    Crime/Drugs                                                            19%

                                    Taxation w/o Representation/Home Rule            14%

                                    Urban revitalization                                                7%

                                    Taxes too high                                                            5%

                                    Statehood                                                            4%

                                    Traffic/transportation                                                3%