Methodology

 

This is the fourth in a series of periodic surveys of Maryland voters (the third Baltimore mayoral poll) to be conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis.

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. earlier this year. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998 campaign for County Executive.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

Gonzales and Arscott together have over 30 years of professional experience in politics.  They have served as pollsters and consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s, including County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker, Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from August 18th  August 23rd, 1999.  A total of 627 registered Democratic voters in Baltimore City were interviewed by telephone.  All stated they were likely to vote in the September Democratic primary election.  A cross-section of calls were made within each council district in the City to reflect Democratic primary election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race, or council district.

 

Baltimore City Mayoral Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

Men                                 274   (44%)

Council District One           102    (16%)

Women                            353   (56%)

Council District Two            93    (15%)

 

Council District Three        119    (19%)

White                               215   (34%)

Council District Four          108    (17%)

African-American           401   (64%)

Council District Five          132    (21%)

Other/Refused                  11    ( 2%)

Council District Six              73    (12%)

 

 

18 to 34                            101   (16%)

 

35 to 54                            213   (34%)

 

55 and above                    313   (50%)

 

 

               

Ó            This survey is provided free of charge.  However, we ask that Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis be credited if the survey is cited in a news story or column.

Analysis

 

 

With the candidacy of City Council President Lawrence Bell in free-fall, the two candidates making the strongest efforts to forge biracial coalitions are in a neck-and-neck contest as the campaign for Mayor of Baltimore enters its final weeks.

 

Former City Council and school board member Carl Stokes has vaulted into the lead, with 32% of the vote.  Councilman Martin O’Malley retains a strong second position with 30%.  And Lawrence Bell, once the runaway leader, has dropped to third place with 20%.  City Register of Wills Mary Conaway polls 2%, and a plethora of other candidates combine to receive another 2%.  The remaining 14% are undecided.

 

Bell’s reversal of fortune has, indeed, been dramatic.  Our June survey showed Bell with a 2-to-1 lead over Carl Stokes, 33% to 17%, with O’Malley yet to enter the race.  Following a spate of negative publicity, and in the midst of the fallout surrounding the demonstration led by Bell forces at an O’Malley endorsement rally, Bell dropped to 29%, and found himself in a tight contest with O’Malley at 26%, followed by Stokes with 20% in early August.  Over the current month, he has fallen from first place to third, trading places with Carl Stokes at 20%.

Bell vote over past 2-1/2 months
 
 


 

Stokes vote over past 2-1/2 months

 
 
 

 

 

 


Bell’s ratio of positives-to-negatives has shrunk from 6-to-1 in June, to 2-to-1 early in August, to 1-to-1 in the current late August poll.  Most significant, his share of the white vote, once as high as 31%, has fallen to just 5%.  The only group of voters that have remained unstintingly loyal are the youngest voters, aged 18 to 34, 42% of whom give Bell their vote.

 

A politician can hardly have had a better stretch than the one enjoyed by Carl Stokes last week, collecting endorsements from the Sun, the Afro-American, Senate Majority Leader Clarence Blount, and the important Interdenominational Ministerial Alliance.  Stokes has ridden that momentum to the lead, and continues to claim the most broad-based support among the three major candidates. 

 

Stokes pulls 31% men and 32% of women.  He earns the votes of 27% of whites and 35% of African-Americans.  His support across the City’s six council districts falls between 38% and 30%, except in District One on the city’s southeast side, where Stokes picks up just 15% of the vote.  When divided by age, Stokes gets a balanced 25% of 18- to 34-year-olds, 36% of those aged 35 to 54, and 31% of voters aged 55 and older. 

 

Even responses to an open-ended question asking Stokes voters why he was their choice were balanced:  Among African-American voters, 30% chose Stokes because he was the best experience or was most qualified, 16% agreed with his position on education, and 15% said that they trusted Stokes, or that they were comfortable with him.  Among white voters, 26% cited experience and qualifications, 20% trust and comfort, and 19% his position on education.

 

Martin O’Malley has both solidified and improved his second place position, increasing his share of the black vote from 12% to 18%, and his share of the white vote from 51% to 55% since our second City survey was taken earlier this month.  O’Malley runs strongest in Council District 1 (57%) and his own District 3 (37%) compared to other areas of the City; stronger among men (36%) than among women (25%); and stronger among voters aged 55 and older (35%) than among those aged 18 to 34 (18%).  Black and white voters cite the same reasons for selecting O’Malley, but in markedly different percentages:  Among black O’Malley voters, 36% cited his position on crime, 17% named his platform generally, and 11% said that Baltimore needed a new leader.  Among white voters, 32% cited a need for a change in leadership, 21% agreed with his position on crime, and 10% with his platform generally.

 

It certainly appears that the election that was once “Bell’s to lose” is slipping away.  His campaign has, thus far, failed to stanch the bleeding.   Many voters who once supported him have shifted their allegiance to Stokes or O’Malley, or have paused in the undecided column to assess their next move.  The largest blocs of undecided voters -- women (16%), African-Americans (15%), and voters aged 55 and older (16%) – are, in turn, fractions of the largest demographic subgroups in the City.  The candidate that does the best job of appealing to older African-American women will probably emerge as victorious on September 14. 

 

 

 

But it would be a mistake to completely dismiss Bell.  Despite his slippage, his campaign has, as of the most recent filing report, the biggest bank account and, therefore, the most flexibility over the next several weeks.  We will all soon learn whether money talks, or whether word of mouth matters most in a Baltimore City Democratic primary. 

 

That said, we’ve felt from our first survey in June that the candidate best able to cobble together a coalition of the City’s disparate demographic groups would be the one best positioned to emerge on Election Day.  Stokes and O’Malley are the ones now doing this, with Stokes doing it just a little more efficiently.

 

 

Citywide Name Recognition

Democratic Primary Voters

 

 

 

 

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Favorable

 

Unfavorable

 

Neutral

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Martin O’Malley

 

 

37%

 

 19%

 

46%

 

8%

 

Carl Stokes

 

 

36%

 

20%

 

41%

 

3%

 

Lawrence Bell

 

 

26%

 

24%

 

49%

 

1%

 

Mary Conaway

 

 

14%

 

18%

 

54%

 

14%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:         If the September 14th Democratic primary election for mayor were held today, for whom would you vote among these candidates:  

 

Lawrence Bell                                                             

Mary Conaway                                                                       

Martin O’Malley                                                                      

Carl Stokes                                                                             

Someone else

 

 

 

RESULTS

 

 

 

Stokes

O’Malley

Bell

Conaway

Others

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Citywide

 

32%

30%

20%

2%

2%

14%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Council District 1

 

 

15%

 

57%

 

7%

 

1%

 

3%

 

17%

Council District 2

 

 

38%

 

21%

 

21%

 

2%

 

2%

 

16%

Council District 3

 

 

30%

 

37%

 

18%

 

1%

 

1%

 

13%

Council District 4

 

 

36%

 

15%

 

35%

 

3%

 

2%

 

9%

Council District 5

 

 

38%

 

25%

 

19%

 

2%

 

2%

 

14%

Council District 6

 

 

31%

 

27%

 

20%

 

1%

 

3%

 

18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

31%

36%

18%

1%

3%

11%

Women

 

33%

25%

22%

2%

2%

16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

27%

55%

5%

1%

2%

10%

African- American

 

 

35%

 

18%

 

28%

 

2%

 

2%

 

15%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18 to 34