Methodology

Methodology

This is the second in a series of periodic surveys of Maryland voters to be conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis.

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales RM&S Research &Communications, Inc. earlier this year.

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998 campaign for County Executive. Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party.

Gonzales and Arscott together have over 30 years of professional experience in politics. They have served as pollsters and consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s, including County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker, Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from June 2nd through June 6^th, 1999. A total of 411 registered Democratic voters in Baltimore City were interviewed by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the September Democratic primary election. A cross-section of calls were made into each political jurisdiction in the City to reflect Democratic primary election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 5 percent. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.

Baltimore City Mayoral Poll Sample Demographics

Men 184 (45%)

Women 227 (55%)

White 151 (37%)

African American 255 (62%)

Other/Refused 5

· This survey is provided free of charge. We ask only that Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis be credited if the survey is cited in a news story or column.

Analysis

It’s no secret that the departure of NAACP President Kweisi Mfume from the 1999 Baltimore City mayoral race has created an atmosphere of near panic among Baltimore’s political cognoscenti, who seem all but desperate for a charismatic leader to capture the public’s imagination as Mfume did. Our data suggest that the insiders’ concerns are legitimate, that Mfume’s decision has left a void that none of the remaining candidates seem yet able to fill.

Indeed, despite findings indicating that 62% of Baltimore City’s Democratic primary voters feel that the City needs “new leadership heading into the next century,” erstwhile mayor William Donald Schaefer would be the choice of a plurality if he entered the 1999 mayoral race.

Schaefer, former Baltimore Mayor, former Maryland Governor, and current state Comptroller, captures 32% of the vote in a crowded field, followed by City Council President Lawrence Bell with 23%, former school board and council member Carl Stokes with 12%, City State’s Attorney Patricia Jessamy with 8%, and former City police chief and Schaefer cabinet member Bishop Robinson at 7%. State Senator Joan Carter Conway, said to be exploring the race, chalks up 4%. Register of Wills Mary Conaway holds 3%. Perennial candidate Robert Kaufman has 2% and Phillip Brown has 1%. Filed candidate William Roberts registered less than one percent of the vote, while the remaining 8% were undecided.

Without Schaefer in the mix, Lawrence Bell gains the lead with 33% of the vote, followed by Stokes at 17%, and Jessamy and Robinson at 9% each. The others split 12% of the vote.

Bell currently possesses the broadest base, leading among both black (35%) and white voters (31%) in a Schaefer-free field, and the number of undecided voters increases considerably, more than doubling to twenty percent, including 28% of white voters.

Schaefer’s name is universally recognized by Baltimore voters, favorably by 54%, unfavorably by 22%, and neutrally by 24%. Bell is known by 96% of the City’s Democratic primary voters and enjoys a 6:1 ratio of favorable-to-unfavorable opinion, by far the highest of any candidate or potential candidate in the survey. Thirty-seven percent have a favorable view of Bell while just 6% hold an unfavorable opinion, and 53% are neutral.

Stokes is nearly as well known as Bell, with 93% of City Democrats recognizing his name, but his faovrables are lower than Bell’s at 29%, and his negatives higher at 14%. State’s Attorney Jessamy is unknown to 31% of Democratic primary voters, and her ratio of favorables-to-unfavorables stands, at this point, at an uncomfortable 17%:15%.

When asked to name the most important issue in the upcoming mayoral race, a clear majority of voters cited crime, drugs, and urban decay as the top problem for the next mayor. Dealing with crime and/or drugs was cited by 34%, reversing urban decay was named by 21%, public education was named by 19%, and reducing the City’s tax burden was cited by 12%. Five percent cited the economic viability of the City, while 2% cited providing for the homeless and indigent. Seven percent offered some other answer or gave no response.

Could Schaefer win this primary if he chose to run? If the field remained crowded by hopefuls, he might be able to. But the primary would inevitably become divisive; carrying not-so-subtle racial overtones that would tear the City apart, something Schaefer would likely be reluctant to do.

Those who said that “Baltimore was a better place to live when William Donald Schaefer was mayor, and we would be better off if he was mayor again,” included 68% of whites surveyed. Conversely, 79% of blacks identified with the other statement, that “Schaefer was a good mayor in the 70s and 80s, but Baltimore is a different place now and we need new leadership heading into the next century.”

Without Schaefer in the mix, Lawrence Bell looks like the candidate to beat. Bell’s high name recognition and his low negatives give him a head start in a packed field. Carl Stokes’ two-day media bounce after Mfume’s withdrawal seems to have subsided, and recent overtures extended to Bishop Robinson appear not to have been taken seriously for now. The three women in the match-up, Patricia Jessamy, Mary Conaway, and Joan Carter Conway, start far behind the Council President’s pole position.

Barring a major misstep or a late entry by another celebrity candidate, this race, three months out, looks like it’s Bell’s to lose.

Citywide Name Recognition

Democratic Primary Voters

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Recognize
Wm. Donald Schaefer	54%	22%	24%	-
Lawrence Bell	37%	6%	53%	4%
Carl Stokes	29%	14%	50%	7%
Bishop Robinson	25%	13%	39%	23%
Mary Conaway	19%	12%	52%	17%
Patricia Jessamy	17%	15%	37%	31%
Joan Carter Conway	12%	10%	46%	32%
Robert Kaufman	11%	3%	33%	53%
Phillip Brown	4%	7%	20%	69%
William Roberts	1%	2%	19%	78%

Mayoral Match-up w/Schaefer Included

QUESTION: If the September Democratic primary election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were:

Lawrence Bell

Phillip Brown

Mary Conaway

Joan Carter Conway

Patricia Jessamy

Robert Kaufman

William Roberts

Bishop Robinson

Wm. Donald Schaefer

Carl Stokes

(LIST READ IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER AS NAMES WOULD APPEAR ON BALLOT)

RESULTS

	Schaefer	Bell	Stokes	Jessamy	Robinson	Carter Conway	Conaway	Kaufman	Brown	Roberts	Undecided
Citywide	32%	23%	12%	8%	7%	4%	3%	2%	1%	*	8%

Men	34%	20%	15%	4%	6%	2%	3%	3%	1%	*	12%
Women	30%	25%	10%	11%	8%	6%	3%	1%	1%	*	5%

White	56%	16%	5%	3%	10%	*	1%	4%	1%	*	4%
African American	18%	28%	16%	11%	5%	6%	4%	1%	1%	*	10%

* Less than 1 percent

Mayoral Match-up w/o Schaefer