Methodology

This is the third in a series of periodic surveys of Maryland voters to be conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis.

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. earlier this year.

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998 campaign for County Executive. Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party.

Gonzales and Arscott together have over 30 years of professional experience in politics. They have served as pollsters and consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s, including County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker, Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from August 4^th through August 8^th , 1999. A total of 634 registered Democratic voters in Baltimore City were interviewed by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the September Democratic primary election. A cross-section of calls were made by council district in the City to reflect Democratic primary election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race, or council district.

Baltimore City Mayoral Poll Sample Demographics

Men 279 (44%) 18 to 34 106 (17%)

Women 355 (56%) 35 to 54 222 (35%)

55 and above 306 (48%)

White 229 (36%) Council District One 101 (16%)

African American 397 (63%) Council District Two 95 (15%)

Other/Refused 8 ( 1%) Council District Three 121 (19%)

Council District Four 110 (17%)

Council District Five 131 (21%)

Council District Six 76 (12%)

Ó This survey is provided free of charge. However, we ask that Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis be credited if the survey is cited in a news story or column.

Analysis

Two months ago, when we first surveyed Baltimore City’s Democratic primary voters on the upcoming mayoral race, City Council President Lawrence Bell held a compelling lead over a large field of declared and potential candidates. In that survey, Bell polled 33% of the vote while his closest competitor, Carl Stokes, trailed with 17%. Moreover, Bell was drawing voters in nearly equivalent percentages from the ranks of white and African-American voters. In June, we thought Bell was the man to beat. More precisely, we felt that the election was Bell’s to lose.

Eight weeks later, in our August survey, the election remains Bell’s to lose, but much has changed. An array of potential candidates in our June survey – William Donald Schaefer, Patricia Jessamy, Joan Carter Conway, and Bishop Robinson – all passed on the race while 3rd District Councilman Martin O’Malley, a former Bell ally, was a surprise addition to the field. Revelations about candidates’ resumes and personal finances have hit the media, and many endorsements have been offered and collected, some with more showmanship and histrionics than others.

The net effect of the campaign so far has been dramatic. Lawrence Bell continues to hold a lead, but that lead has shrunk from 16 points over his nearest rival in June to just a three point advantage in August. Bell gets 29% of the vote, followed by O’Malley with 26%, Stokes with 20%, and Register of Wills Mary Conaway with 4%. The other 13 Democratic mayoral candidates combine to receive 3% of the vote, and the remaining 18% are undecided.

While he continues to hold a lead, and may continue to hold an advantage over the balance of the campaign, Bell’s fortunes have changed markedly since our last survey. In June, Bell enjoyed near-universal name recognition (96%), and an enviable 6-to-1 ratio of favorable-to-unfavorable opinion (37% to 6%). In our August survey, Bell’s overall name identification is 98%, but his ratio of favorables to unfavorables has fallen to 34%-17%, down to 2-to-1. Moreover, while his overall share of the Democratic primary vote has fallen from 33% to 29%, it is change in the racial mix of Bell voters that is most telling. While Bell’s share of the black vote has increased from 35% to 41%, his share of the white vote has plummeted, from 31% to just 9%. Bell’s vote total also suffered from a defection of some women voters, down to 33% from 40% in June.

Carl Stokes’ position has improved marginally over the past eight weeks, up to 20% from 17% in June. Stokes was drawing in equal percentages from black and white voters in June. Today, Stokes share of the white vote is 23%, while 18% of black voters support him. Mary Conaway’s August numbers are nearly identical to those she earned in June. Conaway’s citywide name recognition is 85%, and her share of the overall Democratic primary vote remains the same at 4%.

Martin O’Malley’s entry into the field, however, has created a three-candidate race. O’Malley’s citywide name recognition is 87%, with 38% of those surveyed giving him favorable marks compared to 8% who view him unfavorably, numbers like those Bell had just two months ago. O’Malley runs a close second to Bell with 26% of the overall vote, but with the racial breakdown a reverse image of Bell’s. O’Malley gets 51% of the white vote, while just 12% of black voters give O’Malley the nod.

O’Malley draws heavily on voters aged 55 and older (38%), while Bell’s strength emanates from younger City voters, 37% among those 18 to 34 years of age and 39% among those 35 to 54. While the youngest voters constitute a smaller share (17%) of the overall vote compared to their elders, 38% of voters aged 18 to 34 remain undecided in the mayor’s race. Nearly half (48%) of the City’s voters are aged 55 or older, and 17% of them have yet to make a decision. African-Americans constitute 63% of the electorate, and 21% are undecided. Women comprise 56% of the City’s Democratic primary voters, with 14% yet to make a decision.

It is these demographics that still make this Lawrence Bell’s race to lose. Younger voters, blacks and women combine to create his natural constituency, with a large share from the first two groups still in the undecided column. But it’s not possible at this point to predict if Bell has hit bottom or whether his “fall from grace” will continue to pull his numbers down.

One thing is certain: Race – not crime or drugs or education – has become the Number One issue in the mayoral campaign. The counter-demonstration staged by Bell supporters at the press conference called by Martin O’Malley to showcase the endorsements of several prominent state senators and delegates made that abundantly clear. Politicians care deeply about endorsements from their peers, even if the voters don’t, and in our survey, 59% of Democratic primary voters said that elected officials’ endorsements don’t matter to them.

One final rueful fact: Only 40% of survey respondents said they were generally satisfied with the quality of the candidates running for mayor. Despite that, 73% of the voters surveyed indicated that they would support the party’s nominee if their candidate lost the Democratic primary.

Citywide Name Recognition

Democratic Primary Voters

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Recognize
Martin O’Malley	38%	8%	41%	13%
Carl Stokes	35%	15%	46%	4%
Lawrence Bell	34%	17%	47%	2%
Mary Conaway	17%	19%	49%	15%
Robert Kaufman	9%	11%	36%	45%

QUESTION: If the September 14th Democratic primary election for mayor were held today, for whom would you vote among these candidates:

Lawrence Bell

Mary Conaway

Robert Kaufman

Martin O’Malley

Carl Stokes

Someone else

RESULTS

	Bell	O’Malley	Stokes	Conaway	Others	Undecided
Citywide	29%	26%	20%	4%	3%	18%
Council District 1	12%	37%	19%	4%	4%	24%
Council District 2	34%	21%	25%	2%	3%	15%
Council District 3	23%	41%	17%	4%	2%	13%
Council District 4	49%	10%	18%	4%	2%	17%
Council District 5	26%	22%	23%	3%	3%	23%
Council District 6	29%	24%	19%	5%	5%	18%
Men	24%	28%	20%	3%	2%	23%
Women	33%	24%	20%	5%	4%	14%
White	9%	51%	23%	3%	3%	11%
African- American	41%	12%	18%	5%