Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc.

 

 

 

Baltimore City Mayoral Poll

 

 

April 2003

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:     Carol Arscott      410-461-5744

 

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in Anne Arundel County politics.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from April 19th through April 23rd, 2003.  A total of 402 registered Democratic voters in Baltimore City, Maryland, who indicated they would vote in this September’s Democratic mayoral primary election, were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of calls was made into the city to reflect Democratic primary election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 5 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.

 

 

 

 

Baltimore City Democratic Primary Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

 

Male         177   (44%)

 

White                         131    (33%)

Female      225   (56%)

African-American     261    (65%)

 

Other/Ref                    10   

 

 

 

 

Analysis

 

 

 

O'Malley vs. Mfume

 

Often in politics events, completely beyond one’s control, conspire to work for or against a candidate.  Four years ago, favorable circumstances catapulted unknown Councilman Martin O’Malley from oblivion into the mayor’s office.  Today, if the right charismatic candidate came along, Mayor Martin O’Malley could be catapulted back into oblivion.

 

With his favorable name ID at an extremely high 67% and a job approval rating of an even more impressive 69%, O'Malley would appear to be invulnerable.  But in a one-on-one contest against former Congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume in a Democratic mayoral primary, Mfume trounces the incumbent mayor, 51% to 32%, with 17% undecided.

 

Mfume – boasting an incredible 86% favorable ID rating – captures 70% of the African-American vote and 13% of whites against O'Malley.  A significant 23% of African-Americans said they were undecided in this hypothetical match-up, a bloc likely to break for Mfume as the September primary election draws closer.  O'Malley captures 84% of the white vote and 7% of the black vote against Mfume, with just 3% of whites undecided.

 

 

O'Malley vs. Schaefer

 

Political junkies everywhere had to be thrilled to read in a recent column by Michael Olesker in the Baltimore Sun that William Donald Schaefer was giving serious consideration to running once again for his favorite job.  In the unlikely event the past and present collide, the present would start off with a huge advantage:  O'Malley, in a Democratic primary match-up, bests the popular current state comptroller by a 52% to 34% vote.

 

 

O'Malley vs. Others

 

O'Malley fares even better against an array of other potential candidates, both well-known and unknown, all recently mentioned in news reports.  The mayor is over 50% against State's Attorney Patricia Jessamy (57% to 27%), State Senator and former O'Malley backer Joan Carter Conway (54% to 29%), and Comptroller Joan Pratt (55% to 30%). 

 

In a field that includes all the "mentioned" candidates (save Schaefer), O'Malley again rises to the top, pulling down 53% of the vote to 13% for Pratt, 11% for Carter Conway, 10% for Jessamy, and 1% for high school principal Andrey Bundley.  The remaining 12% are undecided.

 

 

Most Important Issue

 

When asked to name, in an open-ended format, the most important issue facing Baltimore today, 31% of city Democratic primary voters named drugs, 20% cited crime, and 1% named the murder rate specifically, a total of 52%.  Education or poor schools were named by 18%, economic development by 9%, declining population or tax base by 6%, vacant properties by 6%, high taxes by2%, and various lifestyle issues by 2%.  The remaining 5% offered no answer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Name Recognition

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

 

Favorable

 

 

Unfavorable

 

 

Neutral

 

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

Kweisi Mfume

86%

4%

9%

1%

Martin O’Malley

67%

12%

21%

-

Wm. Donald Schaefer

 

60%

 

18%

 

22%

 

-

Patricia Jessamy

49%

31%

17%

3%

Joan Pratt

48%

13%

33%

6%

Joan Carter Conway

46%

8%

31%

15%

Andrey Bundley

11%

3%

23%

63%

 

 

QUESTION:   What is the most important issue facing Baltimore today?

 

Drugs                                                                           31%

Crime                                                                           20%

Education/poor schools                                                 18%

Economic development                                                   9%

Declining population/declining tax base                            6%

Vacant properties                                                           6%

Taxes/high property tax                                                   2%

Lifestyle issues (noise, trash, snow removal)                    2%

Murder rate                                                                    1%

No answer                                                                     5%

 

 

QUESTION:  Do you approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as Baltimore City Mayor?

                                                Approve          69%

                                                Disapprove     20%

                                                No answer      11%

 

 

QUESTION:  If the September Democratic primary for Mayor of Baltimore were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Kweisi Mfume and Martin O'Malley?

 

 

Mfume

O’Malley

Undecided

 

Citywide

 

51%

 

32%

 

17%

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

49%

 

35%

 

16%

 

Women

 

53%

 

30%

 

17%

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

13%

 

84%

 

3%

African-American

 

70%

 

7%

 

23%

 

 

 

QUESTION:  If the September Democratic primary for Mayor of Baltimore were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Martin O'Malley and Joan Pratt?

 

                                                O’Malley        55%

                                                Pratt                30%

                                                Undecided       15%

 

 

QUESTION:  If the September Democratic primary for Mayor of Baltimore were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Joan Carter Conway and Martin O'Malley?

                                                O’Malley                    54%

                                                Carter Conway           29%

                                                Undecided                   17%

 

 

QUESTION:  If the September Democratic primary for Mayor of Baltimore were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Patricia Jessamy and Martin O'Malley?

                                                O’Malley        57%

                                                Jessamy          27%

                                                Undecided       16%

QUESTION:  If the September Democratic primary for Mayor of Baltimore were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Martin O'Malley and Wm. Donald Schaefer?

                                                O’Malley        52%

                                                Schaefer         34%

                                                Undecided       14%

 

 

QUESTION:  If the September Democratic primary for Mayor of Baltimore were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Andrey Bundley, Joan Carter Conway, Patricia Jessamy, Martin O'Malley, and Joan Pratt?

 

                                                O’Malley                    53%

                                                Pratt                            13%

                                                Carter Conway           11%

                                                Jessamy                      10%

                                                Bundley                        1%

                                                Undecided                   12%