Baltimore City
Poll
O’Malley Job
Approval
&
Related Issues
May 16th
2000
Contact: Carol Arscott 410-461-5744
Patrick E. Gonzales and
Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon
Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999.
Gonzales is a 1981 graduate
of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County
Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998
campaign for County Executive. Arscott
is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a
former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party.
Gonzales and Arscott
together have over 30 years of professional experience in politics. They have served as pollsters and
consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s,
including County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker,
Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty
Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, Jean Roesser, and newly-elected Montgomery
First District Councilman Howie Denis.
This survey was conducted by
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from May 10th
through May 14th, 2000. A
total of 426 registered voters in Baltimore City were interviewed by
telephone. A cross-section of calls
were made to reflect voter registration within the City.
The margin for error,
according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 5
percentage points. This means that
there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within
this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any
demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.
Baltimore City Mayoral Poll Sample Demographics
|
18 to 34 104 (25%) |
White 150 (35%) |
|
35 to 54 163 (38%) |
African-American 267 (63%) |
|
55 and older 157 (37%) |
Other/Refused 9 |
|
Refused 2 |
|
|
|
Democrat 345 (81%) |
|
Men 187 (44%) |
Republican 47 (11%) |
|
Women 239 (56%) |
Independent 34 (8%) |
Ó This
survey’s results are provided free of charge.
However, please credit Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies,
Inc. of Annapolis if the survey is cited in a news story or column.
Analysis
Mayor O’Malley Job Approval
Martin O’Malley is enjoying a prolonged honeymoon in
his adopted hometown, earning the approval of 75% of Baltimore’s voters on the
job he’s doing as their new mayor.
Despite a first one hundred days filled with drama and controversy,
O’Malley’s approval rating dropped below 70% in only two demographic subgroups
in the sample, and with just 9% expressing disapproval, the ratio of those who
approve of his performance compared with those who disapprove is better than
8-to-1. The remaining 16% had no
opinion.
O’Malley’s approval rating rises dramatically as
voters age, from 62% with voters aged 18 to 34, to 71% with voters aged 35 to
54, and to a stratospheric 88% with voters aged 55 and older, the highest in
the survey. Voters in the youngest age
cohort registered the highest “disapprove” number, 23%.
Men (77%) and women (73%) back O’Malley in nearly
equal numbers, with 9% of each group disapproving of his performance in office,
and women (18%) more likely than men (14%) to have expressed no opinion.
While African-Americans (70%) are slightly less
likely than whites (84%) to approve of O’Malley’s performance, just 13% of
blacks said they disapproved of the job O’Malley is doing so far.
Baltimore’s Republican minority (81%) is actually
somewhat more enthusiastic about O’Malley than are his fellow Democrats
(76%). And while O’Malley gets the
approval of a majority of Independents (53%), they are more ambivalent than most
voters, with 21% disapproving of O’Malley’s job performance, and 26% expressing
no opinion.
Law Enforcement Issues
Police Commissioner Edward Norris
Newly-confirmed Police Commissioner Edward Norris
begins his new job with a deep reservoir of goodwill. Sixty percent of Baltimore voters said they approve of his
appointment to the City’s top law enforcement post, while just 12% said they
disapproved. Twenty-eight percent had
no opinion.
Norris’ appointment enjoys majority support among
Republicans (85%), whites (78%), voters aged 55 and older (71%), men (64%),
voters aged 35 to 54 (64%), Democrats (58%), women (57%), and African-Americans
(51%).
Norris’ only potential trouble spots are among
Independents (41%) and the youngest voters aged 18 and 34 (38%). But the “disapprove” numbers are relatively
low (15% for voters aged 18 to 34, and 18% for independents), and each of these
subgroups contains a large number of voters who are reserving judgment: Among Independents, 41% expressed no
opinion, the same as those who approved.
Among voters aged 18 to 34, the number who expressed no opinion (47%) is
actually considerably larger than the “approve” figure.
“Zero Tolerance” Policing
When asked about the implementation of “zero
tolerance” police practices in Baltimore, a majority of city voters (54%) said
they approved of such a strategy while 24% disapproved, a ratio of more than
two-to-one. Twenty-two percent
expressed no opinion.
While whites (69%) support “zero tolerance” policing
in large numbers, blacks are less certain, with 47% approving the practice and
29% saying they disapprove. Male voters
in Baltimore (64%) are more likely to support “zero tolerance” policing than
women (46%), and Republicans (87%) more likely to support it than Democrats
(52%). The only group to express disapproval
of “zero tolerance” is independents (32% to 50%).
“Zero tolerance” is narrowly backed by voters aged
18 to 34 (42% to 39%), and supported in large numbers by voters aged 35 to 54
(60%) and voters aged 55 and older (56%).
Strong backing for what some people might consider a
radical approach is more easily understood when one learns that 61% of
Baltimore voters named crime or drugs as the most important issue facing the
City today, dwarfing all other concerns, including education (12%).
Drug Corners
O’Malley’s top priority upon his election as mayor
was to shut down many of Baltimore’s notorious drug corners, one of which is
now the subject of an HBO series. When
asked how successful O’Malley’s efforts to end street-side drugs sales have
been so far, the new mayor earns high marks, with 66% of voters surveyed rating
the campaign as at least somewhat successful.
Fourteen percent said the effort had been very successful, 52% somewhat
successful, 21% not very successful, and 5% not at all successful. The remaining 8% had no opinion.
Responses were remarkably similar across the
demographic subgroups in the survey, with a few notable exceptions. African-Americans (17%) were twice as likely
as whites (9%) to rate the effort so far as “very successful,” and voters aged
18 to 34, who are comparatively more critical of O’Malley in other areas, were
the most likely (65%) to rate the program as somewhat successful.
Baltimore Mayoral Hall of Fame
The threshold for admittance to Major League
Baseball’s Hall of Fame is earning the vote of 75% of the participating sports
reporters (will Cal Ripken become the first player ever named on 100% of the
ballots?). By this standard, O’Malley
nearly makes the Baltimore Mayoral Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility.
When asked to rate Baltimore’s four most recent
mayors on a scale of one to ten, with one meaning “not at all favorable” and
ten meaning “very favorable,” O’Malley topped the charts with an average of
73%. He is followed by Comptroller and
former Governor William Donald Schaefer at 71%, Clarence “Du” Burns at 68%, and
the recently retired Kurt Schmoke at 64%.
Ray Lewis Trial
Buoyed by an overwhelming vote of confidence among
men, African-Americans, and young people, Baltimore Raven’s linebacker Ray
Lewis is believed to be innocent of murder by 46% of city voters surveyed and
thought by 15% to be guilty.
Thirty-nine percent of those surveyed said they didn’t know enough to
form an opinion.
While nearly the same percentage of men (14%) and women
(16%) believe Lewis is guilty as charged, men (60%) are far more likely than
women (35%) to trust in his plea of innocence, while women (49%) are nearly
twice as likely as men (26%) to wait for the trial to make a decision.
More than 50% of City voters younger than age 55
believe that Lewis is innocent (54% of those aged 18 to 34; 57% of those aged
35 to 54), while a majority of voters aged 55 and older (53%) is not sure.
A majority of black voters (54%) believe that Lewis is innocent, while just 5% believe his is guilty. By comparison, a narrow plurality of whites (33% to 30%) believe Lewis’ story, the percentages of black (41%) and white (37%) votes who are not sure is strikingly similar.
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove
of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as mayor?
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
Citywide |
75% |
9% |
16% |
|
18 to 34 |
62% |
23% |
15% |
|
35 to 54 |
71% |
7% |
22% |
|
55 and older |
88% |
2% |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
77% |
9% |
14% |
|
Women |
73% |
9% |
18% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
84% |
2% |
14% |
|
African-American |
70% |
13% |
17% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
76% |
9% |
15% |
|
Republican |
81% |
4% |
15% |
|
Independent |
53% |
21% |
26% |
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the appointment of
Edward Norris as Baltimore City Police Commissioner?
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
Citywide |
60% |
12% |
28% |
|
18 to 34 |
38% |
15% |
47% |
|
35 to 54 |
64% |
17% |
19% |
|
55 and older |
71% |
5% |
24% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
64% |
13% |
23% |
|
Women |
57% |
11% |
32% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
78% |
4% |
18% |
|
African-American |
51% |
16% |
33% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
58% |
9% |
33% |
|
Republican |
85% |
2% |
13% |
|
Independent |
41% |
18% |
41% |
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the implementation
of “zero tolerance” police practices in Baltimore?
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
Citywide |
54% |
24% |
22% |
|
18 to 34 |
42% |
39% |
19% |
|
35 to 54 |
60% |
22% |
18% |
|
55 and older |
56% |
16% |
28% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
64% |
22% |
14% |
|
Women |
46% |
26% |
28% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
69% |
16% |
15% |
|
African-American |
47% |
29% |
24% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
52% |
25% |
23% |
|
Republican |
87% |
0% |
13% |
|
Independent |